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California a Toss Up for the GOP

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Three new California polls with field dates ending Saturday, February 2nd were released today -- all showing growing momentum for Mitt Romney, despite endorsements this past week for John McCain by Rudy Giuliani and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

All three polls show statistical dead-heats between Romney and McCain:

American Research Group (Feburary 1-2, 600 LV)
Romney = 33%
McCain = 32%
Huckabee = 16%
Paul = 8%
Other / undecided = 11%

Rasmussen (February 2, 693 LV)
Romney = 38%
McCain = 38%
Huckabee = 10%
Paul = 6%
Other / undecided = 8%

* Note: Rasmussen had previously found McCain leading Romney by 7 points in mid-January and by 4 points earlier this week.

Reuters / C-SPAN / Zogby (January 31—February 2, 1,185 LV)
Romney = 37%
McCain = 34%
Huckabee = 12%
Paul = 5%
Other / undecided = 13%

With McCain pulling in significant double-digit leads in Northeastern states like New Jersey, Connecticut, and New York, California becomes an important race for Romney, not so much from a delegate perspective but from a media perspective. A victory over McCain in the largest state in the nation is about the only political event that could derail the momentum and positive media coverage McCain has enjoyed during the past few weeks.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Small Club in St. Paul

Mark Dayton is one of just three Minnesotans ever elected to three different statewide offices. Dayton, of course, had previously served as State Auditor (1991-1995) and U.S. Senator (2001-2007) before winning the governorship in 2010. At that time, he joined Republicans Edward Thye and J.A.A. Burnquist on this very short list. Burnquist was elected lieutenant governor in 1914 but then became governor after the death of Democrat Winfield Hammond in 1915. He then won the gubernatorial elections of 1916 and 1918 and eight terms as attorney general two decades later (1939-1955). Thye was similarly first elected lieutenant governor of the Gopher State and became governor after the resignation of fellow GOPer Harold Stasson in 1943. Thye won one additional full term as governor in 1944 and then two terms to the U.S. Senate (1947-1959). Twenty Minnesotans have been elected to two different statewide offices.


Respect Your Elders?

With retirement announcements this year by veteran U.S. Representatives such as 30-term Democrat John Dingell of Michigan, 20-term Democrat George Miller of California, and 18-term Republican Tom Petri of Wisconsin, it is no surprise that retirees from the 113th Congress are one of the most experienced cohorts in recent decades. Overall, these 24 exiting members of the House have served an average of 11.0 terms - the second longest tenure among retirees across the last 18 cycles since 1980. Only the U.S. Representatives retiring in 2006 had more experience, averaging 11.9 terms. (In that cycle, 10 of the 11 retiring members served at least 10 terms, with GOPer Bill Jenkins of Tennessee the lone exception at just five). Even without the aforementioned Dingell, the average length of service in the chamber of the remaining 23 retirees in 2014 is 10.2 terms - which would still be the third highest since 1980 behind the 2006 and 2012 (10.5 terms) cycles.


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