Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Clinton Braces For Another Obama Sweep

Bookmark and Share

Despite still leading in most national polls, Hillary Clinton is set to get swept by Barack Obama in another round of primary contests tomorrow in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia.

To no great surprise at Smart Politics, Obama also swept Clinton this weekend, victorious in the states of Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana, and Maine (plus the Virgin Islands). Smart Politics opined last week that too much had been made of Clinton's high-profile victories in New York, Massachusetts, and California on Super Tuesday, and not enough had been made of the fact that Obama had won 13 of 21 contests (with New Mexico results still pending). And the reason is this: whatever momentum and positive media coverage Clinton was to have gained from, say, her victory in California, that was likely to be replaced in the next news cycle with the "Obama sweep," even though that sweep was comprised of less populous states.

On Saturday morning, Smart Politics stated that nearly all the contests between Super Tuesday and March 4th (when Texas and Ohio vote) strongly favored Obama, and that if Clinton had to wait until March 4th to deliver good news, it would be too late. The results are holding true to form, and Obama will make it 7 for 7 in post-Super Tuesday contests Tuesday evening.

While Clinton is leading in the only recent poll of Wisconsinites (who go to the polls on February 19th along with the Hawaii caucuses), expect those numbers to change after the favorable coverage Obama receives after his East Coast sweep and he invests more resources in the Badger State in the coming week.

Clinton has still outpolled Obama in 7 of 10 national surveys conducted this month, but those results are relatively meaningless for the following reason: Obama has the resources to go on the air with ads to change voters' minds in each state that comes up on the calendar. Obama gets in his media buys early and often and, in addition to his strong 'likeability factor,' he will sway the majority of voters in these upcoming states to his side more often that he will not (not to mention that Democrats in many of these states are already on his side).

And as for the new March 4th firewall of Texas and Ohio on which the Clinton campaign is banking? Don't count on it. For three weeks the media will be covering Obama's dominant performances in the post-Super Tuesday primaries, and this will only make Clinton appear as a smaller and smaller candidate.

Previous post: Live Blog: The Maine Caucuses
Next post: Live Blog: Washington D.C. Primary

3 Comments


  • So what would be your advice if you were Senator Clinton's top advisor? Can she make any play at all anymore? Or is it completely out of her hands -- and Obama's game to lose so to speak?

  • Well, one thing that would certainly help Clinton is more strong performances by Mike Huckabee. If John McCain cruises quickly to become the 'official' nominee, then almost all of the reporting in the coming weeks will be on Obama vs. Clinton. If Huckabee pulls a little magic out of his hat, then McCain will get some of the critical commentary that would have otherwise gone almost completely to the Clinton campaign.

  • But that is out of her hands as well.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

    Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

    Political Crumbs

    Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

    Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


    An Idaho Six Pack

    Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting