Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Clinton Braces For Another Obama Sweep

Bookmark and Share

Despite still leading in most national polls, Hillary Clinton is set to get swept by Barack Obama in another round of primary contests tomorrow in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia.

To no great surprise at Smart Politics, Obama also swept Clinton this weekend, victorious in the states of Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana, and Maine (plus the Virgin Islands). Smart Politics opined last week that too much had been made of Clinton's high-profile victories in New York, Massachusetts, and California on Super Tuesday, and not enough had been made of the fact that Obama had won 13 of 21 contests (with New Mexico results still pending). And the reason is this: whatever momentum and positive media coverage Clinton was to have gained from, say, her victory in California, that was likely to be replaced in the next news cycle with the "Obama sweep," even though that sweep was comprised of less populous states.

On Saturday morning, Smart Politics stated that nearly all the contests between Super Tuesday and March 4th (when Texas and Ohio vote) strongly favored Obama, and that if Clinton had to wait until March 4th to deliver good news, it would be too late. The results are holding true to form, and Obama will make it 7 for 7 in post-Super Tuesday contests Tuesday evening.

While Clinton is leading in the only recent poll of Wisconsinites (who go to the polls on February 19th along with the Hawaii caucuses), expect those numbers to change after the favorable coverage Obama receives after his East Coast sweep and he invests more resources in the Badger State in the coming week.

Clinton has still outpolled Obama in 7 of 10 national surveys conducted this month, but those results are relatively meaningless for the following reason: Obama has the resources to go on the air with ads to change voters' minds in each state that comes up on the calendar. Obama gets in his media buys early and often and, in addition to his strong 'likeability factor,' he will sway the majority of voters in these upcoming states to his side more often that he will not (not to mention that Democrats in many of these states are already on his side).

And as for the new March 4th firewall of Texas and Ohio on which the Clinton campaign is banking? Don't count on it. For three weeks the media will be covering Obama's dominant performances in the post-Super Tuesday primaries, and this will only make Clinton appear as a smaller and smaller candidate.

Previous post: Live Blog: The Maine Caucuses
Next post: Live Blog: Washington D.C. Primary

3 Comments


  • So what would be your advice if you were Senator Clinton's top advisor? Can she make any play at all anymore? Or is it completely out of her hands -- and Obama's game to lose so to speak?

  • Well, one thing that would certainly help Clinton is more strong performances by Mike Huckabee. If John McCain cruises quickly to become the 'official' nominee, then almost all of the reporting in the coming weeks will be on Obama vs. Clinton. If Huckabee pulls a little magic out of his hat, then McCain will get some of the critical commentary that would have otherwise gone almost completely to the Clinton campaign.

  • But that is out of her hands as well.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

    The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

    Political Crumbs

    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    Home Field Advantage?

    When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting