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New ARG Poll Show Tight Race for Dems and GOP in Wisconsin

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These days Republican candidate Mike Huckabee is asked more about when he will quit the GOP race and why he hasn't already ended his presidential bid more than any questions about policy. Ignoring frequent calls for his exit, Huckabee has campaigned on in the Badger State this past week. The former Arkansas Governor is now locked in a tight battle with John McCain in Wisconsin, according to an American Research Group (ARG) poll conducted of 600 likely Republican primary voters on February 15-16.

The ARG poll gives McCain a 46 to 42 percent edge over Huckabee, with 4 percent giving their support to Ron Paul. Seven percent of likely GOP voters are undecided. After Super Tuesday, but before Mitt Romney had announced his withdrawal from the race, Huckabee was only polling at 4 percent in Wisconsin, with McCain at 51 percent, Romney at 29 percent, and Paul at 7 percent (ARG, February 6-7).

Huckabee is hoping for a big independent vote for Obama on the Democratic side of the ticket on Tuesday, draining McCain's base (Wisconsin's contest is an open primary). According to the ARG poll, Ron Paul also benefits from independents voting in the GOP primary (11 percent).

On the Democratic side, ARG continues to show Clinton with a lead—this time by 6 points, 49 to 43 percent; ARG's poll after Super Tuesday showed Clinton with a 50 to 41 percent lead. All other public polls give Obama a 4 to 5 point lead.

It should be noted ARG has overestimated Clinton's support (and underestimated support for Obama) in several races in polls ending the day before the following contests:

Iowa
ARG: Clinton +9
Caucus results: Obama +9

South Carolina
ARG: Obama +3
Primary results: Obama +28

Michigan
ARG: Clinton +25
Primary results: Clinton +15

Florida
ARG: Clinton +30
Primary results: Clinton +17

Tennessee
ARG: Clinton +22
Primary results: Clinton +13

Maryland
ARG: Obama +17
Primary results: Obama +23

Virginia
ARG: Obama +17
Primary results: Obama +29

ARG - like most pollsters - overestimated support for Obama in surveys before the California and New Hampshire primaries.

Previous post: Second Poll Finds Obama, McCain On Top in WI
Next post: Obama Fares 17 Points Better Than Clinton in Wisconsin vs. McCain

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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