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New ARG Poll Show Tight Race for Dems and GOP in Wisconsin

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These days Republican candidate Mike Huckabee is asked more about when he will quit the GOP race and why he hasn't already ended his presidential bid more than any questions about policy. Ignoring frequent calls for his exit, Huckabee has campaigned on in the Badger State this past week. The former Arkansas Governor is now locked in a tight battle with John McCain in Wisconsin, according to an American Research Group (ARG) poll conducted of 600 likely Republican primary voters on February 15-16.

The ARG poll gives McCain a 46 to 42 percent edge over Huckabee, with 4 percent giving their support to Ron Paul. Seven percent of likely GOP voters are undecided. After Super Tuesday, but before Mitt Romney had announced his withdrawal from the race, Huckabee was only polling at 4 percent in Wisconsin, with McCain at 51 percent, Romney at 29 percent, and Paul at 7 percent (ARG, February 6-7).

Huckabee is hoping for a big independent vote for Obama on the Democratic side of the ticket on Tuesday, draining McCain's base (Wisconsin's contest is an open primary). According to the ARG poll, Ron Paul also benefits from independents voting in the GOP primary (11 percent).

On the Democratic side, ARG continues to show Clinton with a lead—this time by 6 points, 49 to 43 percent; ARG's poll after Super Tuesday showed Clinton with a 50 to 41 percent lead. All other public polls give Obama a 4 to 5 point lead.

It should be noted ARG has overestimated Clinton's support (and underestimated support for Obama) in several races in polls ending the day before the following contests:

Iowa
ARG: Clinton +9
Caucus results: Obama +9

South Carolina
ARG: Obama +3
Primary results: Obama +28

Michigan
ARG: Clinton +25
Primary results: Clinton +15

Florida
ARG: Clinton +30
Primary results: Clinton +17

Tennessee
ARG: Clinton +22
Primary results: Clinton +13

Maryland
ARG: Obama +17
Primary results: Obama +23

Virginia
ARG: Obama +17
Primary results: Obama +29

ARG - like most pollsters - overestimated support for Obama in surveys before the California and New Hampshire primaries.

Previous post: Second Poll Finds Obama, McCain On Top in WI
Next post: Obama Fares 17 Points Better Than Clinton in Wisconsin vs. McCain

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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