Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Obama Yet To Capture Hearts of Voters in Ohio

Bookmark and Share

Barack Obama has been able to win, and win convincingly, in all 10 contests since Super Tuesday nearly a month ago. When Hillary Clinton's campaign unofficially set up her firewall in Ohio and Texas shortly after her losses in Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington on February 9th, polls had her out in front of Obama by about 20 points in Ohio (Quinnpiac, February 12th) and just under 10 points in Texas (Insider Advantage, February 14th).

As repeated throughout the month here at Smart Politics, the more time and money Obama spends in a state, the higher and higher his numbers seem to rise. The Obama campaign has enjoyed such a surge in Texas, where 3 of the last 4 polls conducted in the state this week now show him with a narrow lead, although within the margin of error (CNN, SurveyUSA, InsiderAdvantage; Clinton has a narrow lead in this week's Rasmussen poll).

It is clear Clinton is not going to go to sleep next Tuesday night with the big victory that her campaign so desperately needed in the Lone Star State. In fact, she is probably more likely than not to be on the short end of the delegate count there.

In Ohio, however, Obama has yet to lead in any of the 25 public polls released during the past year. Quinnipiac has tracked the Democratic primary matchup in 14 polls, and still shows Clinton leading by double digits (51 to 40 percent) in its last poll ending February 23rd. Obama has made inroads in the state according to other surveys, but the junior Senator from Illinois has not polled within the margin of error in Ohio to date.

The internals of these surveys show Clinton to still be performing very well among one of her key demographics—older voters—enjoying a 7-point advantage among those aged 50 to 64 and a 32-point advantage among those aged 65 or older (SurveyUSA). Obama, as expected, dominates among younger voters, 55 to 38 percent, but is effectively tied with Clinton among those aged 35 to 49.

Clinton also enjoys a 22-point advantage over Obama among women in Ohio, who comprise a majority of Democratic primary voters (a recent ARG poll showed Clinton with a 28 point edge among women). Men support Obama by 16 points—not enough to give him the state.

Another key for Clinton is that she is thus far performing relatively well in Ohio among African Americans. According to SurveyUSA, Clinton is receiving the support of 23 percent of the black vote; final SurveyUSA polling before the Maryland primary, for example, showed Clinton with just 15 percent of the black vote in that state and only 13 percent in Virginia.

Obama's other problem is that he has not yet won over political moderates, among whom he trails Clinton 50 to 46 percent (SurveyUSA). By comparison, Obama is tied with Clinton among moderates in Texas; Obama led by 8 points among that demographic in final SurveyUSA polling in Virginia and by 17 points in Maryland.

Previous post: MN Legislature Overrides Pawlenty's Transportation Bill Veto
Next post: Poll Roundup: The March 4th Primaries (Democrats)

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Have the Longest and Shortest Election Day Voting Hours?

Residents in some North Dakota towns have less than half as many hours to cast their ballots as those in New York State.

Political Crumbs

Mary Burke: English First?

While multiculturalism and bilingualism are increasingly en vogue in some quarters as the world seemingly becomes a smaller place, one very high profile 2014 Democratic candidate does not shy away from the fact that she only speaks one language: English. In an attempt to highlight her private sector credentials working for Trek Bicycle, Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mary Burke boasts on her campaign bio page how she made great strides in international business dealings...while only speaking English: "Despite not speaking a single foreign language, she established sales and distribution operations in seven countries over just three years." Note: According to 2010 Census data, nearly half a million Wisconsinites over five years old speak a language other than English at home, or 8.7 percent, while 4.6 percent of Badger State residents do not speak English at all.


Does My Key Still Work?

Much has been made about Charlie Crist's political transformation from Republican to independent to Democrat en route to winning the Florida GOP and Democratic gubernatorial nominations over a span of eight years. Party-switching aside, Crist is also vying to become just the second Florida governor to serve two interrupted terms. Democrat William Bloxham was the first - serving four year terms from 1881 to 1885 and then 1897 to 1901. Florida did not permit governors serving consecutive terms for most of its 123 years prior to changes made in its 1968 constitution. Since then four have done so: Democrats Reubin Askew, Bob Graham, and Lawton Chiles and Republican Jeb Bush.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting