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Poll: Obama Up 4 In Wisconsin

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While news spread through the media yesterday that Hillary Clinton's campaign had virtually "given up" on winning the Badger State, a new Rasmussen poll conducted on February 13th of 855 likely voters finds Barack Obama leading Clinton by a 47 to 43 percent margin.

Rasmussen also reports a fairly large gender gap among the Democrats: Clinton leads by 10 points among women but trails Obama by 23 points among men.

When it comes to the general election the Badger State has been a classic battleground state in presidential elections: neither Democrats or Republicans have won a majority of the vote since 1988. Republican presidential nominees have only eclipsed the 50 percent mark in Wisconsin two times since 1964 (Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984).

When matched up again John McCain, recent polls have found both Clinton and Obama in a tough fight in Wisconsin: a late January SurveyUSA poll gave McCain a 49 to 45 percent edge while Obama trailed by a statistically insignificant 46 to 44 percent margin.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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