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Poll Roundup: Dems vs. McCain

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As Barack Obama continues to cruise through the post-Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and caucuses, the Illinois Senator has recently made claims during his stump speeches that he is more electable than Hillary Clinton against presumptive GOP nominee John McCain.

Recent head-to-head state polling from across the nation conducted during the past week does indeed find Obama performing much stronger against McCain than does Clinton.

Obama currently performs better than Clinton in 10 of 12 states with polls ending during the past week: Iowa (net +13), Kansas (+18), Michigan (+8), Minnesota (+20), New Jersey (+1), New York (+10), Ohio (+2), Oregon (+9), Virginia (+5), and Wisconsin (+17).

Clinton performs better than Obama when matched up against McCain in just Florida (net +10) and Pennyslvania (+1) in these 12 states. It is worth noting that these are two states in which Obama did not (Florida, due to DNC rules) or has not yet (Pennsylvania) campaigned.

Overall, these polls indicate McCain would defeat Clinton in 8 states (Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon, Virginia, Wisconsin), Clinton would win 2 states (New Jersey and New York), with 2 states deadlocked (Michigan and Pennsylvania).

Obama, however, would defeat McCain in 6 states (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Wisconsin), McCain would win 3 states (Florida, Kansas, Virginia) with 3 states essentially tied (Ohio, Oregon, Pennyslvania).

The polling numbers:

Florida (Rasmussen, Likely voters (LV), February 16)
McCain 49%, Clinton 43%
McCain 53%, Obama 37%
Clinton net +10

Iowa (Rasmussen, LV, February 18)
McCain 47%, Clinton 37%
Obama 44%, McCain 41%
Obama net +13

Kansas (SurveyUSA, Registered Voters (RV), February 15-17)
McCain 59%, Clinton 35%
McCain 50%, Obama 44%
Obama net +18

Michigan (Rasmussen, LV, February 17)
McCain 44%, Clinton 44%
Obama 47%, McCain 39%
Obama net +8

Minnesota
(Rasmussen, LV, February 16)
McCain 47%, Clinton 42%
Obama 53%, McCain 38%
Obama net +20

New Jersey (Quinnipiac, LV, February 13-18)
Clinton 47%, McCain 41%
Obama 46%, McCain 39%
Obama net +1

New York (SurveyUSA, RV, February 15-17)
Clinton 52%, McCain 41%
Obama 57%, McCain 36%
Obama net +10

Ohio (Rasmussen, LV, February 17)
McCain 46%, Clinton 43%
McCain 42%, Obama 41%
Obama net +2

Oregon (SurveyUSA, RV, February 15-17)
McCain 49%, Clinton 41%
Obama 48%, McCain 47%
Obama net +9

Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall, RV, February 13-18)
McCain 46%, Clinton 46%
McCain 44%, Obama 43%
Clinton net +1

Virginia (Rasmussen, LV, February 19)
McCain 51%, Clinton 41%
McCain 49%, Obama 44%
Obama net +5

Wisconsin (SurveyUSA, RV, February 15-17)
McCain 49%, Clinton 42%
Obama 52%, McCain 42%
Obama net +17

Note: this cross section of state polling is heavy on midwestern and northeastern states, with an underreprestation of western and southern states.

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Remains of the Data

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Political Crumbs

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Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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