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Rasmussen Poll: MN U.S. Senate Race A Dead Heat

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A new Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters conducted February 16th finds 1-term Republican incumbent Senator Norm Coleman in a dead heat with both Al Franken and Mike Ciresi in the Gopher State.

Franken leads Coleman 49 to 46 percent, within the poll's margin of error. This is the first Rasmussen poll and only the second public poll overall conducted during the battle for Minnesota's Senate seat that has measured Franken's statewide support ahead of the GOP Senator.

Coleman retains a moderately high favorability rating in the state (55 percent), while Franken reached the 50 percent favorability mark for the first time in four Rasmussen polls (39 percent in March 2007, 46 percent in September 2007, 43 percent in October 2007). Coleman led Franken by 10 points last March, by 5 points last September, and by 7 points last October, according to Rasmussen.

DFL candidate Mike Ciresi is also matching Coleman blow-for-blow, trailing by just two points, 47 to 45 percent, also within the poll's margin of error. Ciresi's main competition now, however, is Franken in the fight for the DFL nomination. This marks the highest level of support Ciresi has received in a matchup poll with Coleman in 10 public polls released since February 2007.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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