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Romney Wins Maine Caucuses

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While all the political (and media-generated) momentum seems to be on John McCain's side, Mitt Romney won a small, but perhaps important battle this weekend by overwhelmingly winning the Maine Republican caucuses (the Democratic caucuses will be held on Feburary 10th).

The GOP caucuses took place across the state from Friday through Sunday, with most completed by Saturday night. The caucus votes are nonbinding but, based on the results, the Associated Press estimates Romney will win all 18 delegates stemming from the caucus process. The state has 21 delegates to the GOP convention overall.

With 68 percent reporting at the end of Saturday, the results were:

Romney = 52%
McCain = 21%
Paul = 19%
Huckabee = 6%
Undecided = 2%

McCain had been endorsed by both of Maine's moderate Republican Senators—Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.

Despite its nonbinding status, the Maine caucuses may be a good sign for Romney. Romney is counting on finishing first in several caucus states on Super Tuesday to stay in the race for the GOP nomination, essentially ceding several primary contests to McCain—especially in the South and Northeast. Caucus states are generally thought to favor Romney as they are more frequently attended by conservatives and "true blood" Republicans, as opposed to the Republican moderates and independents which comprise the base of McCain's support in primaries.

Montana, Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota, and West Virginia are all holding cacuses on February 5th. With Romney scoring a caucus win in a Northeastern state like Maine, expect him to finish first in most of the western caucus states (Romney had already won the Wyoming and Nevada caucuses).

McCain's advantage coming into Tuesday, however, is significant, as his likely wins in the Northeast give him much bigger delegate prizes (several states are winner-take-all on the GOP side) than those states in which Romney is projected to be competitive.

Over the next 24 hours Smart Politics will be posting its Super Tuesday Preview for both the GOP and Democrats.

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Remains of the Data

The Longest-Held Republican US Senate Seats

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Political Crumbs

Curse of the '4'?

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


Seasoned Senators in Wisconsin

Of the 15 men and women that have served in the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin since popular vote elections were introduced a century ago, Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin rank among the oldest upon first entering the chamber. Johnson began his tenure at the age of 55 years, 8 months, and 26 days in January 2011, which is the oldest of any elected Wisconsin Senator during this popular vote era. The next oldest, Alexander Wiley, was more than one year younger when he took his seat in 1939 (54 years, 7 months, 8 days). Tammy Baldwin comes in at #6 being 50 years, 10 months, and 23 days when she took office in January of this year. The youngest elected Senator from the Badger State was Robert La Follette, Jr. at 30 years, 7 months, and 24 days (1925) when he took the seat of his legendary deceased father.


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