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Super Tuesday Live Blog Postgame

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11:22 p.m. On the Republican side, nearly all networks, especially Fox News and MSNBC, are writing the political obituary for Mitt Romney's 2008 campaign, echoing Mike Huckabee's speech tonight that the GOP race is a "two-person race" with Huckabee in it. NBC News' Tom Brokaw began to contemplate whether Romney would run again in 2012, and that, if he did, he would need to shake his image of being a "conservative of convenience." The media is struggling tonight balancing Huckabee's excellent performance in the South with McCain's big delegate count. Regarding the expectation game, however, McCain seems to have lost more states than he was expected to do. Having won the big race in California, however, seems to have erased that fact. When all is said and done, it looks like McCain will have won 9 states, Romney 6 states, and Huckabee 5 states (Alaska pending).

11:39 p.m. The coverage tonight has been equally curious on the Democratic side. Clinton's performance has largely been characterized as a success, even though she did not win any states she was projected to lose, and lost more "toss-ups" (Missouri, Alabama, Connecticut, Deleware, Georgia) than she won (California). Obama has won 13 of 21 contests, with New Mexico the only state that has yet to be called.

11:49 p.m. MSNBC analyst Chuck Todd estimates the final delegate count tonight will be 841 for Obama and 837 for Clinton with a "margin of error of 10 either way." It was a "split decision" tonight, says Todd.

11:54 p.m. Fox News' Britt Hume says Hillary Clinton had a "pretty big night," and commentator Fred Barnes agreed. The question is: how many states would Clinton have had to lose to have a night which would be characterized as disappointing? It appears that because Clinton won the two big states on the coasts, California and New York, that the media views her Super Tuesday as a success. That said, Barack Obama is probably sleeping very well tonight.

12:29 a.m. CNN's Jeffrey Toobin characterized Mitt Romney's performance today as an "absolute disaster." CNN analyst David Gergen then praised Obama's performance by having won 6 caucuses tonight, indicating that he therefore has demonstrated good organization on the ground. Interesting, as Romney himself won 4 of 5 caucuses tonight (with a likely victory in Alaska forthcoming), and his victories have been characterized as "consolation prizes" in "small states." That said, Romney's campaign has stated they will have "frank discussions" about his campaign on Wednesday, so perhaps he will be exiting the race despite winning 7 states.

1:22 a.m. The delegate count remains to be tallied, as the results from California's congressional districts still come in, but here is the number of victories for each candidate by states won in the 2008 campaign:

Republicans
McCain = 12
Romney = 11
Huckabee = 6

Democrats
Obama = 15
Clinton = 10
* Note: does not include the Florida or Michigan primaries, which will not seat delegates at the DNC, nor New Mexico, which is still too close to call.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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