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Super Tuesday Preview: The Democrats

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The Democratic showdown in more than 20 states on Super Tuesday could be one for the ages. A national shift to Barack Obama has definitely taken place during the past week. Obama is in the lead or tied with Hillary Clinton in 3 of the 7 national polls taken during the past few days. Previously, Obama had tied or led in just 4 of the past 201 polls dating back to late 2006, with Clinton boasting double digit leads in the majority of them.

Due to the proportional system in which state democratic parties award delegates, it is extremely unlikely that a winner on the Democratic side will emerge on February 5th. The headline, however, will not simply be that Obama 'remained competitive' to stay in the race, but that the Illinois junior Senator won several key states in which Clinton had previously held the momentum. That outcome - even if the two candidates come out nearly equal in the delegate count - would be a severe blow to the Clinton campaign.

There are several states (at least 8) that are unlikely to be in play on Super Tuesday. Clinton is poised to do very well in her home states of Arkansas and New York in addition to Massachusetts, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. Oklahoma is one of the few states in which the well-funded Obama campaign decided not to run any media spots. Obama, meanwhile, is running strong in Georgia, Illinois, and Utah.

Of the remaining 14 states, California is the big prize, and Smart Politics predicts Obama will win the most votes in the Golden State where Oprah Winfrey and the state's First Lady Maria Shriver campaigned on behalf of Obama this weekend.

Clinton once had the upper hand in Northeastern states like New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware, but recent polls in all those states show them to be up for grabs. Smart Politics predicts that although the races will be tight, Clinton will prevail in at least two of them.

Several states, especially in the West and Midwest, will be holding caucuses on Tuesday: Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, New Mexico, and North Dakota. Polling is very scant in these states, with the only recent poll coming in Minnesota (released last week by Minnesota Public Radio and the Humphrey Institute), which showed Clinton with a 7-point lead. Smart Politics predicts that Obama will prevail in a majority of these caucus states, including the Gopher State, where he has run a big ad campaign.

That leaves the Southern states of Alabama and Missouri and the Southwestern state of Arizona. Polls in all three states are very close and these are definite 'toss-up' states. Whoever wins them will not win a large majority of the delegates.

Missouri might be the bellwether state in determining who has the ultimate advantage as the campaigns move forward past Super Tuesday, as it is the neighboring state to both Clinton (Arkasnsas) and Obama (Illinois).

The final tally Smart Politics expects to see on the Super Tuesday Democratic scorecard: 12 states for Clinton, 10 states for Obama.

A Republican Super Tuesday Preview will be posted later today.

Previous post: California a Toss Up for the GOP
Next post: Super Tuesday Preview: The Republicans

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Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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