Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Final Polls Show Mini Clinton Surge

Bookmark and Share

If one is to believe the final polls of Ohioans and Texans released over the last 24 hours, Hillary Clinton could be packing her bags for Pennsylvania after tonight's primary contests. While Obama will still lead in the pledged delegate count no matter what the outcomes in Ohio, Texas, Vermont, and Rhode Island, a strong Clinton showing, winning 2 or 3 states, will create rampant media speculation about why Obama could not continue his double-digit streak of primary and caucus victories. Look for these themes:

Was it due to Hillary Clinton's now famous "3 AM" ad?—her most blatant attack on Obama that he is not ready to face a serious crisis in foreign affairs.

Or was it due to Clinton's strong comedic (and self-effacing) showing on Saturday Night Live last weekend, in which her image received a much needed boost of personality?

Or was it due to right-wing appeals for Republicans in Texas to cross party lines and vote for Clinton in the Democratic primary?

Or is "the bloom off the rose," and the results reflect more of a move away from Obama than one towards Clinton?

Smart Politics will live blog the returns this evening, providing political and media analysis along the way.

Until the real results come in, here are the latest poll results, with field dates ending on Sunday or Monday:

Ohio
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: Clinton 44%, Obama 44%
ARG: Clinton 56%, Obama 42%
Rasmussen: Clinton 50%, Obama 44%
Suffolk: Clinton 52%, Obama 40%
SurveyUSA: Clinton 54%, Obama 44%
University of Cincinnati: Clinton 51%, Obama 42%
Quinnipiac: Clinton 49%, Obama 45%

Texas
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: Clinton 47%, Obama 44%
ARG: Clinton 50%, Obama 47%
Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Clinton 47%
InsiderAdvantage: Clinton 49%, Obama 44%
SurveyUSA: Obama 49%, Clinton 48%
WFAA/Belo: Clinton 46%, Obama 45%

Previous post: Pollsters Do Not Inspire Confidence On the Eve of OH, TX Primaries
Next post: Live Blog: Vermont Primary

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Have the Longest and Shortest Election Day Voting Hours?

Residents in some North Dakota towns have less than half as many hours to cast their ballots as those in New York State.

Political Crumbs

No 100-Year Curse for Roberts

Defeating his Tea Party primary challenger Milton Wolf with just 48.1 percent of the vote, Pat Roberts narrowly escaped becoming the first elected U.S. Senator from Kansas to lose a renomination bid in 100 years. The last - and so far only - elected U.S. Senator to lose a Kansas primary was one-term Republican Joseph Bristow in 1914. Bristow was defeated by former U.S. Senator Charles Curtis who went on to win three terms before becoming Herbert Hoover's running mate in 1928. Only one other U.S. Senator from the Sunflower State has lost a primary since the passage of the 17th Amendment: Sheila Frahm in 1996. Frahm was appointed to fill Bob Dole's seat earlier that year and finished 13.2 points behind Sam Brownback in the three-candidate primary field. Overall, incumbent senators from Kansas have won 29 times against two defeats in the direct vote era. (Curtis also lost a primary in 1912 to Walter Stubbs, one year before the nation moved to direct elections).


The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting