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Final Polls Show Mini Clinton Surge

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If one is to believe the final polls of Ohioans and Texans released over the last 24 hours, Hillary Clinton could be packing her bags for Pennsylvania after tonight's primary contests. While Obama will still lead in the pledged delegate count no matter what the outcomes in Ohio, Texas, Vermont, and Rhode Island, a strong Clinton showing, winning 2 or 3 states, will create rampant media speculation about why Obama could not continue his double-digit streak of primary and caucus victories. Look for these themes:

Was it due to Hillary Clinton's now famous "3 AM" ad?—her most blatant attack on Obama that he is not ready to face a serious crisis in foreign affairs.

Or was it due to Clinton's strong comedic (and self-effacing) showing on Saturday Night Live last weekend, in which her image received a much needed boost of personality?

Or was it due to right-wing appeals for Republicans in Texas to cross party lines and vote for Clinton in the Democratic primary?

Or is "the bloom off the rose," and the results reflect more of a move away from Obama than one towards Clinton?

Smart Politics will live blog the returns this evening, providing political and media analysis along the way.

Until the real results come in, here are the latest poll results, with field dates ending on Sunday or Monday:

Ohio
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: Clinton 44%, Obama 44%
ARG: Clinton 56%, Obama 42%
Rasmussen: Clinton 50%, Obama 44%
Suffolk: Clinton 52%, Obama 40%
SurveyUSA: Clinton 54%, Obama 44%
University of Cincinnati: Clinton 51%, Obama 42%
Quinnipiac: Clinton 49%, Obama 45%

Texas
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: Clinton 47%, Obama 44%
ARG: Clinton 50%, Obama 47%
Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Clinton 47%
InsiderAdvantage: Clinton 49%, Obama 44%
SurveyUSA: Obama 49%, Clinton 48%
WFAA/Belo: Clinton 46%, Obama 45%

Previous post: Pollsters Do Not Inspire Confidence On the Eve of OH, TX Primaries
Next post: Live Blog: Vermont Primary

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Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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