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Poll Roundup: The March 4th Primaries (Democrats)

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With less than 72 hours before polls close in four primary states on Tuesday, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton appear to be headed for a draw.

With Obama leading in the delegate count, a draw would continue his path to the Democratic nomination. However, if Clinton wins 2 states and/or approximately half of the delegates allotted on March 4th, it would give her enough political ammunition to remain in the race until the next big Democratic contest on April 22nd in Pennsylvania (two other Democratic contests will be held in between—the Wyoming caucuses on March 8th and the Mississippi primary on March 11th).

Obama and Clinton appear likely to split a pair of Northeastern states on Tuesday—with Obama leading by a wide margin in limited polling in Vermont and Clinton leading by about 10 points in recent surveys conducted in Rhode Island.

According to several recent polls, Texas and Ohio both seem up for grabs, with Obama holding a narrow edge in the former and Clinton leading by a few points in the latter.

Obama has led in 10 of 16 Texas polls released during the past seven days, with Clinton leading in 4, and the two candidates tied in 2.

Obama has not led in any public poll released in Ohio throughout the entire campaign, although the gap has narrowed in the past week. In fact, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll shows the candidates deadlocked in a tie.

The latest polling results:

Texas
ARG: Clinton 47%, Obama 47% (February 29—March 1; 600 LV)
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: Obama 45%, Clinton 43% (February 27-29; 708 LV)
Fox News: Obama 48%, Clinton 45% (Feburary 26-28, 600 LV)
Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Clinton 44% (February 27, 503 LV)

Ohio
ARG: Clinton 51%, Obama 44% (Feburary 29—March 1; 600 LV)
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: Clinton 45%, Obama 45% (February 27-29; 701 LV)
Rasmussen: Clinton 47%, Obama 45% (Feburary 28, 851 LV)
Fox News: Clinton 46%, Obama 38% (Feburary 26-28, 600 LV)

Rhode Island
Fleming: Clinton 49%, Obama 40% (February 24-27; 401 LV)
Rasmussen: Clinton 53%, Obama 38% (Feburary 23; 1035 LV)

Vermont
Rasmussen: Obama 57%, Clinton 33% (February 24, 1013 LV)

Previous post: Obama Yet To Capture Hearts of Voters in Ohio
Next post: Pollsters Do Not Inspire Confidence On the Eve of OH, TX Primaries

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Remains of the Data

Strange Bedfellows: A Historical Review of Divided US Senate Delegations

Over the last century, states have been twice as likely to be represented by a single political party in the U.S. Senate than have a split delegation; only Delaware, Iowa, and Illinois have been divided more than half the time.

Political Crumbs

Haugh to Reach New Heights

The North Carolina U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis may go down to the wire next Tuesday, but along the way Libertarian nominee Sean Haugh is poised to set a state record for a non-major party candidate. Haugh, who previously won 1.5 percent of the vote in the Tar Heel State's 2002 race, has polled at or above five percent in 10 of the last 12 polls that included his name. The current high water mark for a third party or independent candidate in a North Carolina U.S. Senate election is just 3.3 percent, recorded by Libertarian Robert Emory back in 1992. Only one other candidate has eclipsed the three percent mark - Libertarian Christopher Cole with 3.1 percent in 2008.


Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


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