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Poll Roundup: The March 4th Primaries (Democrats)

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With less than 72 hours before polls close in four primary states on Tuesday, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton appear to be headed for a draw.

With Obama leading in the delegate count, a draw would continue his path to the Democratic nomination. However, if Clinton wins 2 states and/or approximately half of the delegates allotted on March 4th, it would give her enough political ammunition to remain in the race until the next big Democratic contest on April 22nd in Pennsylvania (two other Democratic contests will be held in between—the Wyoming caucuses on March 8th and the Mississippi primary on March 11th).

Obama and Clinton appear likely to split a pair of Northeastern states on Tuesday—with Obama leading by a wide margin in limited polling in Vermont and Clinton leading by about 10 points in recent surveys conducted in Rhode Island.

According to several recent polls, Texas and Ohio both seem up for grabs, with Obama holding a narrow edge in the former and Clinton leading by a few points in the latter.

Obama has led in 10 of 16 Texas polls released during the past seven days, with Clinton leading in 4, and the two candidates tied in 2.

Obama has not led in any public poll released in Ohio throughout the entire campaign, although the gap has narrowed in the past week. In fact, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll shows the candidates deadlocked in a tie.

The latest polling results:

Texas
ARG: Clinton 47%, Obama 47% (February 29—March 1; 600 LV)
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: Obama 45%, Clinton 43% (February 27-29; 708 LV)
Fox News: Obama 48%, Clinton 45% (Feburary 26-28, 600 LV)
Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Clinton 44% (February 27, 503 LV)

Ohio
ARG: Clinton 51%, Obama 44% (Feburary 29—March 1; 600 LV)
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: Clinton 45%, Obama 45% (February 27-29; 701 LV)
Rasmussen: Clinton 47%, Obama 45% (Feburary 28, 851 LV)
Fox News: Clinton 46%, Obama 38% (Feburary 26-28, 600 LV)

Rhode Island
Fleming: Clinton 49%, Obama 40% (February 24-27; 401 LV)
Rasmussen: Clinton 53%, Obama 38% (Feburary 23; 1035 LV)

Vermont
Rasmussen: Obama 57%, Clinton 33% (February 24, 1013 LV)

Previous post: Obama Yet To Capture Hearts of Voters in Ohio
Next post: Pollsters Do Not Inspire Confidence On the Eve of OH, TX Primaries

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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