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Poll Roundup: The March 4th Primaries (Democrats)

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With less than 72 hours before polls close in four primary states on Tuesday, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton appear to be headed for a draw.

With Obama leading in the delegate count, a draw would continue his path to the Democratic nomination. However, if Clinton wins 2 states and/or approximately half of the delegates allotted on March 4th, it would give her enough political ammunition to remain in the race until the next big Democratic contest on April 22nd in Pennsylvania (two other Democratic contests will be held in between—the Wyoming caucuses on March 8th and the Mississippi primary on March 11th).

Obama and Clinton appear likely to split a pair of Northeastern states on Tuesday—with Obama leading by a wide margin in limited polling in Vermont and Clinton leading by about 10 points in recent surveys conducted in Rhode Island.

According to several recent polls, Texas and Ohio both seem up for grabs, with Obama holding a narrow edge in the former and Clinton leading by a few points in the latter.

Obama has led in 10 of 16 Texas polls released during the past seven days, with Clinton leading in 4, and the two candidates tied in 2.

Obama has not led in any public poll released in Ohio throughout the entire campaign, although the gap has narrowed in the past week. In fact, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll shows the candidates deadlocked in a tie.

The latest polling results:

Texas
ARG: Clinton 47%, Obama 47% (February 29—March 1; 600 LV)
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: Obama 45%, Clinton 43% (February 27-29; 708 LV)
Fox News: Obama 48%, Clinton 45% (Feburary 26-28, 600 LV)
Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Clinton 44% (February 27, 503 LV)

Ohio
ARG: Clinton 51%, Obama 44% (Feburary 29—March 1; 600 LV)
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: Clinton 45%, Obama 45% (February 27-29; 701 LV)
Rasmussen: Clinton 47%, Obama 45% (Feburary 28, 851 LV)
Fox News: Clinton 46%, Obama 38% (Feburary 26-28, 600 LV)

Rhode Island
Fleming: Clinton 49%, Obama 40% (February 24-27; 401 LV)
Rasmussen: Clinton 53%, Obama 38% (Feburary 23; 1035 LV)

Vermont
Rasmussen: Obama 57%, Clinton 33% (February 24, 1013 LV)

Previous post: Obama Yet To Capture Hearts of Voters in Ohio
Next post: Pollsters Do Not Inspire Confidence On the Eve of OH, TX Primaries

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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