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Poll Roundup: The March 4th Primaries (Democrats)

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With less than 72 hours before polls close in four primary states on Tuesday, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton appear to be headed for a draw.

With Obama leading in the delegate count, a draw would continue his path to the Democratic nomination. However, if Clinton wins 2 states and/or approximately half of the delegates allotted on March 4th, it would give her enough political ammunition to remain in the race until the next big Democratic contest on April 22nd in Pennsylvania (two other Democratic contests will be held in between—the Wyoming caucuses on March 8th and the Mississippi primary on March 11th).

Obama and Clinton appear likely to split a pair of Northeastern states on Tuesday—with Obama leading by a wide margin in limited polling in Vermont and Clinton leading by about 10 points in recent surveys conducted in Rhode Island.

According to several recent polls, Texas and Ohio both seem up for grabs, with Obama holding a narrow edge in the former and Clinton leading by a few points in the latter.

Obama has led in 10 of 16 Texas polls released during the past seven days, with Clinton leading in 4, and the two candidates tied in 2.

Obama has not led in any public poll released in Ohio throughout the entire campaign, although the gap has narrowed in the past week. In fact, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll shows the candidates deadlocked in a tie.

The latest polling results:

Texas
ARG: Clinton 47%, Obama 47% (February 29—March 1; 600 LV)
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: Obama 45%, Clinton 43% (February 27-29; 708 LV)
Fox News: Obama 48%, Clinton 45% (Feburary 26-28, 600 LV)
Rasmussen: Obama 48%, Clinton 44% (February 27, 503 LV)

Ohio
ARG: Clinton 51%, Obama 44% (Feburary 29—March 1; 600 LV)
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby: Clinton 45%, Obama 45% (February 27-29; 701 LV)
Rasmussen: Clinton 47%, Obama 45% (Feburary 28, 851 LV)
Fox News: Clinton 46%, Obama 38% (Feburary 26-28, 600 LV)

Rhode Island
Fleming: Clinton 49%, Obama 40% (February 24-27; 401 LV)
Rasmussen: Clinton 53%, Obama 38% (Feburary 23; 1035 LV)

Vermont
Rasmussen: Obama 57%, Clinton 33% (February 24, 1013 LV)

Previous post: Obama Yet To Capture Hearts of Voters in Ohio
Next post: Pollsters Do Not Inspire Confidence On the Eve of OH, TX Primaries

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Political Crumbs

Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


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