Pollsters Do Not Inspire Confidence On the Eve of OH, TX Primaries

As even the casual political bystander has learned during the past two months of the primary season, the influx of political polling in Campaign 2008 has given pollsters more and more opportunities...to miss the mark. New Hampshire and California have been the two biggest black eyes on survey research firms to date. While no poll is a predictor of outcomes per se, the degree to which pollsters in both of those states underestimated the Clinton vote and overestimated the Obama vote (and overestimated the Romney vote in California) does not inspire confidence among interested observers about what will happen on March 4th.

Tuesday may indeed be the last big test for pollsters before the General Election in November, with scores of polls having been released in Ohio and Texas during the past two weeks. The most recent results from these surveys once again demonstrate that pollsters are having a high degree of difficulty in determining who is a 'likely voter'—as the results they have generated vary wildly.

For example, take the Democratic primary in Ohio. One poll released today has Barack Obama up by two points (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby), while another has Clinton up by 12 points (Suffolk). Still another survey released a few days ago (Columbus Dispatch) had Clinton up by a shocking 16 points, although that poll was based on registered voters (with a very large sample—2,308). Most polls however, show Clinton with a lead within the margin of error up to 9 points. Since only 1 poll (the Reuters/C-SPAN-Zogby survey) has ever shown Obama ahead in the Buckeye State, the Clinton campaign should be optimistic about their chances there on Tuesday.

In Texas, the Democratic race is tight, but on the Republican side there have been equally curious polling results. American Research Group (ARG) conducted a poll on February 23-24 of 600 likely voters that gave McCain a 45 to 41 percent lead over Huckabee. But, in their next poll conducted just 3 days later, McCain somehow opened up a 62 to 23 percent lead—a 35-point swing! While Huckabee's campaign has not been relevant to the political process for a few weeks now, he did not commit any major campaign blunder to effect such a mammoth change among the Republican electorate. Such a turnaround in such a short time frame is just about unprecedented in political polling.

Polling, to be sure, is a tricky science—even more so during primary season when voter turnout is very unpredictable. We will see whether March 4th becomes the 3rd strike this season for pollsters or whether they 'got it right.'

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Curse of the '4'?

May 22, 2013

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.

Seasoned Senators in Wisconsin

May 2, 2013

Of the 15 men and women that have served in the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin since popular vote elections were introduced a century ago, Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin rank among the oldest upon first entering the chamber. Johnson began his tenure at the age of 55 years, 8 months, and 26 days in January 2011, which is the oldest of any elected Wisconsin Senator during this popular vote era. The next oldest, Alexander Wiley, was more than one year younger when he took his seat in 1939 (54 years, 7 months, 8 days). Tammy Baldwin comes in at #6 being 50 years, 10 months, and 23 days when she took office in January of this year. The youngest elected Senator from the Badger State was Robert La Follette, Jr. at 30 years, 7 months, and 24 days (1925) when he took the seat of his legendary deceased father.