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April 2008


Beware the Race Card (It Should Already Have Been Played)

As Barack Obama continues to labor under the cloud of controversy stirred up by his longtime friend, pastor, and ostensibly mentor Jeremiah Wright, the consequence of Wright's recent high profile speaking engagements will no doubt result in an abandonment of some voters, many of whom will be white, from Obama's...

Immigration Concerns Linger in Upper Midwest Even As Issue Fades from Presidential Race

During the heat of the Republican nomination battle, GOP candidates were criticized by many pundits and pro-immigration advocates for inflaming the public fear of illegal immigration as well as for artificially pushing the policy issue on the front burner of their campaigns. To some extent, illegal immigration became a...

Harkin (D-IA) Coasting in 2008 Senate Re-election Bid

Iowa Democrat Tom Harkin enjoys a huge lead in his bid for a fifth consecutive term as junior Senator from the Hawkeye State, according to a new poll released this weekend by KCCI-TV / Research 2000. The survey of 600 likely voters gave Harkin leads of between 29 and 39...

Clinton vs. Obama: Who Is Winning the Battleground States?

On Wednesday, Smart Politics broke down the race for the Democratic nomination utilizing the math of the Electoral College vote (to date, Hillary Clinton has won states with 267 Electoral College votes, including Florida, compared to just 202 for Barack Obama). Obviously, and by no means, did that entry imply...

Coleman Up 7 Points on Franken in New Poll

Republican incumbent Senator Norm Coleman continues to lead likely DFL challenger Al Franken in the latest survey of 500 likely voters by Rasmussen. The survey, conducted April 22nd, gives Coleman a 50 to 43 percent lead, up from 48 to 46 percent a month ago. Though Coleman's lead is very...

Pennsylvania Primary Wrap-up; Or, Why Clinton Could Actually Be Winning the Race for the Democratic Nomination

Hillary Clinton's big (though unsurprising to Smart Politics) double-digit victory in the Keystone State Tuesday night did more than 'delay the inevitable'—the 'inevitable' being what most pundits say is that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for president. Clinton accomplished four things with her victory. First, she cut into...

Live Blog: The Pennsylvania Primary

7:00 p.m. MSNBC characterizes the race as "too close to call." Fox News calls it "close" and CNN calls it "competitive." 7:10 p.m. It was an interesting, though not surprising, turn by the media during the past few days. The need to make Pennsylvania appear to be as competitive as...

Final PA Polls; Live Blog Tonight

Three more polls of likely Pennsylvania primary voters were released today - each showing Hillary Clinton with a substantial lead: American Research Group (April 20-21, 600 LV): Clinton 56%, Obama 40% Zogby (April 20-21, 675 LV): Clinton 51%, Obama 41% InsiderAdvantage (April 21, 712 LV): Clinton 49%, Obama 42% Smart...

Pennsylvania Poll Roundup: Clinton to Sail on to NC, IN

Despite a lot of noise in the media during the last few weeks about Barack Obama's surging campaign in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton appears on top in all five polls released during the past 24 hours—including by double digits in two of them. Clinton has not trailed Obama in any of...

E.J. Dionne to Speak on Politics and Religion at Humphrey Institute

From the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance press release: Souled Out: Reclaiming Faith and Politics after the Religious Right E.J. Dionne, Jr., columnist, Washington Post, and senior fellow, Brookings Institution Tuesday, April 22, 2008 Noon - 1:15pm Humphrey Forum Hubert H. Humphrey Center 301 19th Ave S....

North Carolina vs. Kentucky: A Snapshot of How Racial and Economic Politics Shape the Democratic Vote

Hillary Clinton is facing one sure roadblock on her way to a clean sweep through the South Dakota and Montana primaries on June 3rd. That state is North Carolina, where Clinton has trailed Barack Obama by double digits in six of nine nonpartisan polls conducted since her wins in Ohio...

Wisconsinites Extremely Dour on the National Scene

The latest in a series of biannual polls conducted by Wisconsin Public Radio and St. Norbert College over the past decade demonstrates that Wisconsinites view the state of the nation—its institutions and economy—to be of grave concern. An incredibly low 18 percent of the 400 adults surveyed between March 25th...

Obama Still Toughest Democratic Opponent for McCain in Battleground States

In polling conducted in all but one of a half-dozen battleground states during the past week to ten days, Barack Obama continues not only to lead John McCain, but also perform stronger against McCain than his Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton. Although Obama's advantage over McCain is in single digits in...

Why Clinton Is Not In Trouble In Pennsylvania

With Pennsylvania's Democratic primary less than 2 weeks away, the media is attempting to drum up interest with reports that Barack Obama is running neck-and-neck with Clinton in the Keystone State. While it is true that Obama has gained ground on Clinton according to polling conducted over the past 4+...

Extended Democratic Primary Gives McCain a Boost in Wisconsin

Last year, Wisconsin appeared ready to vote for a Democratic presidential nominee for the sixth consecutive election. Democratic candidates were defeating Republican candidates in most matchup polls and, in generic partisan matchups, Wisconsinites gave Democrats the edge by double digits in polls conducted in Spring 2007, Summer 2007, and as...

Governors Doyle, Culver Getting Low Marks While Pawlenty Prevails

As economic concerns continue to fuel pessimism about the near future, Democratic Governors Jim Doyle (Wisconsin) and Chet Culver (Iowa) face the lowest ratings of their gubernatorial careers. Meanwhile, Minnesota Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty has managed quite successfully to remain fairly popular with his statewide constituency. Culver, who comes from...

Economic Conerns Continue to Dominate Upper Midwest

In monthly surveys tracking what is the most important issue facing the next president, the economy has emerged as the dominant issue across the Upper Midwest. SurveyUSA asked 600 likely voters in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin closed-ended questions with eight choices as to what was the most important concern facing...

The Ventura Legacy: Solidified and Stronger Third Parties

From the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance press release: Jesse Ventura ran in the 1998 governor's election as a rebel intent on breaking the hold of the two party system on government. Yet, critics charged that Governor Ventura failed to convert his personal following into a lasting...

Poll Roundup: Clinton Dominates in Remaining Contests

In the three weeks since the last presidential primary contest in Mississippi, and the four weeks since the Texas and Ohio primaries, little has changed in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. As projected here at Smart Politics last month, Hillary Clinton has the decided advantage over Barack Obama...