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Obama Still Toughest Democratic Opponent for McCain in Battleground States

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In polling conducted in all but one of a half-dozen battleground states during the past week to ten days, Barack Obama continues not only to lead John McCain, but also perform stronger against McCain than his Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton.

Although Obama's advantage over McCain is in single digits in most of these states, he nonetheless polls stronger than Clinton, who trails McCain in 5 of the 6 battleground states.

  • In New Mexico (Rasmussen, April 8, 500 LV), Obama leads McCain 45 to 42 percent, while McCain edges Clinton 46 to 43 percent. Net Obama advantage over Clinton: 6 points.
    • In Washington (SurveyUSA, April 7, 607 RV), Obama leads McCain 51 to 44 percent, while McCain nips Clinton 46 to 45 percent, a statistical tie. Net Obama advantage over Clinton: 8 points.
    • In Wisconsin, (WPR, March 25- April 5, 400 adults), Obama leads McCain 46 to 42 percent, with McCain leading Clinton by the same tally. Net Obama advantage over Clinton: 8 points.
    • In Iowa (Rasmussen, March 31, 500 LV), Obama leads McCain 46 to 42 percent, with McCain demolishing Clinton 51 to 36 percent. Net Obama advantage over Clinton: 19 points.
    • In Maine (Rasmussen, April 1, 500 LV), Obama has a double digit lead over McCain, 49 to 39 percent, while Clinton leads McCain 47 to 42 percent. Net Obama advantage over Clinton: 5 points.

    Only in Ohio (Rasmussen, April 8, 500 LV), of the battleground states recently surveyed, does Clinton outperform Obama—though just by 2 points. McCain leads Clinton 47 to 42 percent, and leads Obama 47 to 40 percent.

    In non-battleground states that historically favor Republicans, Clinton seems to be polling better against McCain than Obama in the south (e.g. Alabama, Tennessee), while Obama performs better than Clinton in the West (e.g. Montana, Alaska).

    Previous post: Why Clinton Is Not In Trouble In Pennsylvania
    Next post: Wisconsinites Extremely Dour on the National Scene

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    Remains of the Data

    Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

    Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

    Political Crumbs

    Six for Thirteen

    Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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