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Obama Still Toughest Democratic Opponent for McCain in Battleground States

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In polling conducted in all but one of a half-dozen battleground states during the past week to ten days, Barack Obama continues not only to lead John McCain, but also perform stronger against McCain than his Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton.

Although Obama's advantage over McCain is in single digits in most of these states, he nonetheless polls stronger than Clinton, who trails McCain in 5 of the 6 battleground states.

  • In New Mexico (Rasmussen, April 8, 500 LV), Obama leads McCain 45 to 42 percent, while McCain edges Clinton 46 to 43 percent. Net Obama advantage over Clinton: 6 points.
    • In Washington (SurveyUSA, April 7, 607 RV), Obama leads McCain 51 to 44 percent, while McCain nips Clinton 46 to 45 percent, a statistical tie. Net Obama advantage over Clinton: 8 points.
    • In Wisconsin, (WPR, March 25- April 5, 400 adults), Obama leads McCain 46 to 42 percent, with McCain leading Clinton by the same tally. Net Obama advantage over Clinton: 8 points.
    • In Iowa (Rasmussen, March 31, 500 LV), Obama leads McCain 46 to 42 percent, with McCain demolishing Clinton 51 to 36 percent. Net Obama advantage over Clinton: 19 points.
    • In Maine (Rasmussen, April 1, 500 LV), Obama has a double digit lead over McCain, 49 to 39 percent, while Clinton leads McCain 47 to 42 percent. Net Obama advantage over Clinton: 5 points.

    Only in Ohio (Rasmussen, April 8, 500 LV), of the battleground states recently surveyed, does Clinton outperform Obama—though just by 2 points. McCain leads Clinton 47 to 42 percent, and leads Obama 47 to 40 percent.

    In non-battleground states that historically favor Republicans, Clinton seems to be polling better against McCain than Obama in the south (e.g. Alabama, Tennessee), while Obama performs better than Clinton in the West (e.g. Montana, Alaska).

    Previous post: Why Clinton Is Not In Trouble In Pennsylvania
    Next post: Wisconsinites Extremely Dour on the National Scene

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    Remains of the Data

    Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

    Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

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