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Pennsylvania Poll Roundup: Clinton to Sail on to NC, IN

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Despite a lot of noise in the media during the last few weeks about Barack Obama's surging campaign in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton appears on top in all five polls released during the past 24 hours—including by double digits in two of them. Clinton has not trailed Obama in any of the 58 surveys conducted in Pennsylvania by nonpartisan organizations dating back 15 months.

Smart Politics has consistently stated during the weeks since the Texas and Ohio primaries that Clinton would win Pennsylvania and warned its readership not to buy into the media's tendency to make the race look closer than it really is in the Keystone State. That prediction is based as much on an analysis of the political culture and demographics of the state, as a cursory glance at public opinion surveys (all of which point to a Clinton victory).

In the latest batch of polls, Clinton is seen increasing her lead in the daily Zogby tracking poll (now up six points) and scoring double-digit advantages in surveys conducted by Suffolk and American Research Group:

American Research Group (April 17-19, 600 LV): Clinton 54, Obama 41
Suffolk (April 19-20, 600 LV): Clinton 52, Obama 42
Quinnipiac (April 18-20, 1,027 LV): Clinton 51, Obama 44
Zogby (April 19-20, 602 LV): Clinton 48, Obama 42
Mason-Dixon (April 17-18, 625 LV): Clinton 48, Obama 43

Smart Politics will blog live during the results of the primary on Tuesday evening, discussing the political impact of the returns as well as analyzing the media coverage of the important event.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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