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Pennsylvania Poll Roundup: Clinton to Sail on to NC, IN

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Despite a lot of noise in the media during the last few weeks about Barack Obama's surging campaign in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton appears on top in all five polls released during the past 24 hours—including by double digits in two of them. Clinton has not trailed Obama in any of the 58 surveys conducted in Pennsylvania by nonpartisan organizations dating back 15 months.

Smart Politics has consistently stated during the weeks since the Texas and Ohio primaries that Clinton would win Pennsylvania and warned its readership not to buy into the media's tendency to make the race look closer than it really is in the Keystone State. That prediction is based as much on an analysis of the political culture and demographics of the state, as a cursory glance at public opinion surveys (all of which point to a Clinton victory).

In the latest batch of polls, Clinton is seen increasing her lead in the daily Zogby tracking poll (now up six points) and scoring double-digit advantages in surveys conducted by Suffolk and American Research Group:

American Research Group (April 17-19, 600 LV): Clinton 54, Obama 41
Suffolk (April 19-20, 600 LV): Clinton 52, Obama 42
Quinnipiac (April 18-20, 1,027 LV): Clinton 51, Obama 44
Zogby (April 19-20, 602 LV): Clinton 48, Obama 42
Mason-Dixon (April 17-18, 625 LV): Clinton 48, Obama 43

Smart Politics will blog live during the results of the primary on Tuesday evening, discussing the political impact of the returns as well as analyzing the media coverage of the important event.

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Remains of the Data

Strange Bedfellows: A Historical Review of Divided US Senate Delegations

Over the last century, states have been twice as likely to be represented by a single political party in the U.S. Senate than have a split delegation; only Delaware, Iowa, and Illinois have been divided more than half the time.

Political Crumbs

Haugh to Reach New Heights

The North Carolina U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis may go down to the wire next Tuesday, but along the way Libertarian nominee Sean Haugh is poised to set a state record for a non-major party candidate. Haugh, who previously won 1.5 percent of the vote in the Tar Heel State's 2002 race, has polled at or above five percent in 10 of the last 12 polls that included his name. The current high water mark for a third party or independent candidate in a North Carolina U.S. Senate election is just 3.3 percent, recorded by Libertarian Robert Emory back in 1992. Only one other candidate has eclipsed the three percent mark - Libertarian Christopher Cole with 3.1 percent in 2008.


Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


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