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Pennsylvania Poll Roundup: Clinton to Sail on to NC, IN

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Despite a lot of noise in the media during the last few weeks about Barack Obama's surging campaign in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton appears on top in all five polls released during the past 24 hours—including by double digits in two of them. Clinton has not trailed Obama in any of the 58 surveys conducted in Pennsylvania by nonpartisan organizations dating back 15 months.

Smart Politics has consistently stated during the weeks since the Texas and Ohio primaries that Clinton would win Pennsylvania and warned its readership not to buy into the media's tendency to make the race look closer than it really is in the Keystone State. That prediction is based as much on an analysis of the political culture and demographics of the state, as a cursory glance at public opinion surveys (all of which point to a Clinton victory).

In the latest batch of polls, Clinton is seen increasing her lead in the daily Zogby tracking poll (now up six points) and scoring double-digit advantages in surveys conducted by Suffolk and American Research Group:

American Research Group (April 17-19, 600 LV): Clinton 54, Obama 41
Suffolk (April 19-20, 600 LV): Clinton 52, Obama 42
Quinnipiac (April 18-20, 1,027 LV): Clinton 51, Obama 44
Zogby (April 19-20, 602 LV): Clinton 48, Obama 42
Mason-Dixon (April 17-18, 625 LV): Clinton 48, Obama 43

Smart Politics will blog live during the results of the primary on Tuesday evening, discussing the political impact of the returns as well as analyzing the media coverage of the important event.

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Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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