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May 2008


Clinton Retains Advantage Over McCain, Obama in Key Battleground States

Hillary Clinton's few remaining arguments for why she should be the Democratic nominee include: 1) She will have won more popular votes during the Democratic primaries and caucuses (the "Al Gore 2000" argument); this assumes Puerto Rico pays off big for Clinton. 2) She will have won more "Electoral College"...

Obama Sustains Advantage Over McCain in Iowa

The latest SurveyUSA poll of 600 registered voters in Iowa still finds Barack Obama on his way to taking back the Hawkeye State for the Democratic Party in 2008. Obama leads John McCain 47 to 38 percent in the poll conducted May 21-22. Obama has led McCain in all 15...

Kentucky, Oregon Wrap Up: Smart Politics Projections Hit the Target

As Barack Obama wrapped up the pledged delegate war several weeks ago, the remaining battle for the democratic nomination had two remaining and interrelated battlefronts: momentum and the popular vote. Hillary Clinton's aim since mid-March has thus not simply been to win states to gain momentum and appear to be...

Live Blog: Oregon Primary

10:15 p.m. All three networks have called Oregon for Barack Obama. This is the 28th state Obama has carried, plus D.C., the Texas caucuses, Guam, and the Virgin Islands. 10:20 p.m. (29% reporting) Obama = 60% Clinton = 40% Obama has won back 57,000 votes so far in Oregon. 10:24...

Live Blog: Kentucky Primary

5:50 p.m. (9% reporting) Clinton = 50% Obama = 46% Over 80 percent of the vote that has reported in is from Jefferson County - home to Louisville - one of the few locales in Kentucky where Obama is expected to do well. 5:55 p.m. (11% reporting) Clinton = 51%...

KY, OR Primary: Live Blog Tonight

Smart Politics will blog live Tuesday night as the primary results from Kentucky and Oregon come in. Smart Politics will pay particular attention to the voter turnout and Clinton victory margin in Kentucky, to determine whether or not she is able to cut Obama's 411,000 margin in half by night's...

Suffolk Poll: Clinton Within 4 Points in Oregon

A Suffolk University poll of 600 likely voters in Oregon this weekend (May 17-18) now measures the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to be within 4 points. This echoes the findings of American Research Group polls last week that measured Obama's advantage at 5 points. The West Virginia...

Polls in KY, OR: Someone Forgot to Tell the Voters 'It's Over'

Although the media, several prominent Democrats, and even some pollsters (Rasmussen) called the Democratic race 'over' even after Hillary Clinton's 41-point blowout victory in West Virginia, Democratic voters are apparently saying otherwise. Several polls point to 60-plus percent of Democratic voters wanting Hillary Clinton to stay in the race, and...

Iowans Outlook on America Bleakest in 10 Years

A new Rasmussen poll of 500 likely Iowa voters, conducted May 13th, finds only 11 percent of Iowans believe the country is heading in the right direction. An astounding 84 percent believe it is off on the wrong track—more than 10 points higher than the previous high during the past...

The Numbers: West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon and Beyond

While there has been no doubt for more than a month that Barack Obama would win the pledged delegate count in the race for the Democratic nomination, a higher than projected turnout in West Virginia's primary padded Hillary Clinton's victory and thus made a larger dent in her popular vote...

Live Blog: West Virginia Primary

6:30 p.m. CNN characterizes Hillary Clinton will win West Virginia by "a wide margin." MSNBC states exit polls show Clinton will win by a 2:1 margin. Clinton now has won 17 states, plus Florida, Michigan, and American Samoa. 6:36 p.m. An MSNBC reporter following the Clinton campaign states there are...

West Virginia Primary Results Live Blog Tonight

Smart Politics will blog live Tuesday night as the primary results from West Virginia come in. Some questions Smart Politics will track tonight in measuring the impact of Clinton's expected big victory: What is the voter turnout? Will a large Clinton gain in the popular vote shift the media coverage...

West Virginia Update: Clinton to Net 100,000 Votes?

A new poll released today by Suffolk University still finds Hillary Clinton flirting with a 40-point blowout victory in the West Virginia primary. The survey of 600 likely voters gives Clinton a 60 percent to 24 percent advantage over Barack Obama. Clinton, who must rack up very large popular vote...

Bush Job Performance Rating Sinks to New Low In Wisconsin

The latest Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters in Wisconsin finds a record number of Badger State residents give President Bush "poor" marks in assessing his job performance. For the first time, a majority of Wisconsinites (51 percent) say Bush is doing poorly in a survey conducted on May 5th,...

Will West Virignia and Kentucky Make A Difference for Clinton?

Those who have been reading Smart Politics during the past two months should not have been surprised that Hillary Clinton both won the Indiana primary on Tuesday night and also decided to continue her campaign the next day, despite strong pressure by the media, pundits, and some Democratic politicians for...

Live Blog: North Carolina Primary

6:30 p.m. MSNBC, Fox News, and CNN all project Barack Obama will win the Tar Heel State. Obama has now carried 27 states, plus the Texas caucus, District of Columbia, Virgin Islands, and Guam. Obama narrowly won Guam last Saturday. 6:40 p.m. New polls were released today in Kentucky, which...

Live Blog: Indiana Primary

6:00 p.m. (4% reporting) Clinton = 59% Obama = 41% MSNBC, Fox News, and CNN are stating the race is "too early to call." 6:05 p.m. (5% reporting) Clinton = 59% Obama = 41% 6:12 p.m. (8% reporting) Clinton = 56% Obama = 44% 6:19 p.m. A Clinton win in...

Final IN / NC Polls; Live Blog Tonight

Three more polls of likely voters in North Carolina and two of likely voters in Indiana were released today. In North Carolina, Barack Obama's lead over Hillary Clinton continues to be measured from very large to very small: Zogby: Obama 51, Clinton 37 American Research Group: Obama 50, Clinton 42...

CSPG Study Tracks Increased Voter Registration in 2008

From the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance press release: "The 2008 contests for the Republican and Democratic Party presidential nominations have been a boon for American democracy. The intense competition for nomination combined with investments in mobilizing voters for primaries and caucuses has fuelled an historic surge...

Norm Coleman Retains 10-Point Advantage in Latest SurveyUSA Poll

One-term Republican incumbent Senator Norm Coleman continues to keep lead DFL challenger Al Franken at bay, according to the latest poll of 615 registered (not likely) voters by SurveyUSA. The poll, conducted April 30—May 1, gives Coleman a 52 to 42 percent advantage, well outside the survey's margin of error....

Clinton Takes 1st Lead in North Carolina Since Edwards Departure

A new poll by Insider Advantage finds Hillary Clinton has climbed ahead of Barack Obama among likely voters in North Carolina. The survey, conducted April 29th of 571 likely voters, gives Clinton a statistically insignificant 44 to 42 percent lead. Whether or not Clinton is actually ahead in North Carolina...