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Clinton Takes 1st Lead in North Carolina Since Edwards Departure

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A new poll by Insider Advantage finds Hillary Clinton has climbed ahead of Barack Obama among likely voters in North Carolina. The survey, conducted April 29th of 571 likely voters, gives Clinton a statistically insignificant 44 to 42 percent lead.

Whether or not Clinton is actually ahead in North Carolina is unclear; what is clear is the upward trajectory of her campaign in the Tar Heel State (and the downward trajectory of Obama's). Two weeks prior, an Insider Advantage Poll found Obama up 51 to 36 percent over the junior Senator from New York. The last three public surveys of North Carolinians have found Clinton within single digits of Obama or, in Insider Advantage's poll, in the lead.

Clinton had not been atop the polls in North Carolina since December 2007, when John Edwards was still in the race splitting the "anti-Clinton vote" with Obama. Since then, Obama had led in 17 consecutive surveys by non-partisan organizations. Another poll released today of 400 likely voters, by Mason-Dixon, still shows Obama up by 7 points.

Insider Advantage's track record has been pretty good of late this primary season. In its final Texas poll, Insider Advantage had Clinton winning by 5 points; Clinton won by 4 points. Its final poll in Pennsylvania showed Clinton winning by 7 points; Clinton won by 9.3 points.

Despite her recent primary victories, Clinton's momentum is being dampened, however, as undecided superdelegates appear to be peeling off in equal or greater number to Obama in recent days.

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3 Comments


  • Things would get real interesting if she could win in NC.

  • GO HILLARY

  • How can you write a headline that states "Clinton takes 1st lead...", and then reveal quickly admit that it is statistically insignificant?

    I expect much better from you guys. Better than Fox news.

    Overall, I'm disappointed in this blog. I was hoping for intelligent and objective blogging. You have yet to find a true voice. Right now it's mostly "I told you so" based on survey data.

    I am looking for context, perspective, maybe even some relation to 'theory'. Is this all that academic political science has to offer?

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Strange Bedfellows: A Historical Review of Divided US Senate Delegations

    Over the last century, states have been twice as likely to be represented by a single political party in the U.S. Senate than have a split delegation; only Delaware, Iowa, and Illinois have been divided more than half the time.

    Political Crumbs

    Haugh to Reach New Heights

    The North Carolina U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis may go down to the wire next Tuesday, but along the way Libertarian nominee Sean Haugh is poised to set a state record for a non-major party candidate. Haugh, who previously won 1.5 percent of the vote in the Tar Heel State's 2002 race, has polled at or above five percent in 10 of the last 12 polls that included his name. The current high water mark for a third party or independent candidate in a North Carolina U.S. Senate election is just 3.3 percent, recorded by Libertarian Robert Emory back in 1992. Only one other candidate has eclipsed the three percent mark - Libertarian Christopher Cole with 3.1 percent in 2008.


    Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

    Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


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