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Final IN / NC Polls; Live Blog Tonight

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Three more polls of likely voters in North Carolina and two of likely voters in Indiana were released today. In North Carolina, Barack Obama's lead over Hillary Clinton continues to be measured from very large to very small:

Zogby: Obama 51, Clinton 37
American Research Group: Obama 50, Clinton 42
Insider Advantage: Obama 47, Clinton 43

Zogby is the only pollster to have shown the race to be in the double-digits for Obama during the past week. ARG has gradually shown a slight deterioration in Obama's lead from 13 points in late March, to 11 points in mid-April, to 10 points ten days ago, to 9 points last Thursday, to 8 points through this past weekend. If Obama continues to receive 90 percent of the projected black vote in North Carolina, he should carry the state.

In Indiana, Clinton has been leading in all polls in recent days, with the exception of the final Zogby tracking poll:

Zogby: Obama 45, Clinton 43
American Research Group: 53, Obama 45

Smart Politics will blog live Tuesday night as the primary results from both states come in. In addition to real-time reporting of results and media watchdog commentary, Smart Politics will examine the impact of the results on the upcoming primary contests. Live blogging will commence at 6 p.m. CST when polls close in Indiana.

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Political Crumbs

No 100-Year Curse for Roberts

Defeating his Tea Party primary challenger Milton Wolf with just 48.1 percent of the vote, Pat Roberts narrowly escaped becoming the first elected U.S. Senator from Kansas to lose a renomination bid in 100 years. The last - and so far only - elected U.S. Senator to lose a Kansas primary was one-term Republican Joseph Bristow in 1914. Bristow was defeated by former U.S. Senator Charles Curtis who went on to win three terms before becoming Herbert Hoover's running mate in 1928. Only one other U.S. Senator from the Sunflower State has lost a primary since the passage of the 17th Amendment: Sheila Frahm in 1996. Frahm was appointed to fill Bob Dole's seat earlier that year and finished 13.2 points behind Sam Brownback in the three-candidate primary field. Overall, incumbent senators from Kansas have won 29 times against two defeats in the direct vote era. (Curtis also lost a primary in 1912 to Walter Stubbs, one year before the nation moved to direct elections).


The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


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