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Final IN / NC Polls; Live Blog Tonight

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Three more polls of likely voters in North Carolina and two of likely voters in Indiana were released today. In North Carolina, Barack Obama's lead over Hillary Clinton continues to be measured from very large to very small:

Zogby: Obama 51, Clinton 37
American Research Group: Obama 50, Clinton 42
Insider Advantage: Obama 47, Clinton 43

Zogby is the only pollster to have shown the race to be in the double-digits for Obama during the past week. ARG has gradually shown a slight deterioration in Obama's lead from 13 points in late March, to 11 points in mid-April, to 10 points ten days ago, to 9 points last Thursday, to 8 points through this past weekend. If Obama continues to receive 90 percent of the projected black vote in North Carolina, he should carry the state.

In Indiana, Clinton has been leading in all polls in recent days, with the exception of the final Zogby tracking poll:

Zogby: Obama 45, Clinton 43
American Research Group: 53, Obama 45

Smart Politics will blog live Tuesday night as the primary results from both states come in. In addition to real-time reporting of results and media watchdog commentary, Smart Politics will examine the impact of the results on the upcoming primary contests. Live blogging will commence at 6 p.m. CST when polls close in Indiana.

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Remains of the Data

Strange Bedfellows: A Historical Review of Divided US Senate Delegations

Over the last century, states have been twice as likely to be represented by a single political party in the U.S. Senate than have a split delegation; only Delaware, Iowa, and Illinois have been divided more than half the time.

Political Crumbs

Haugh to Reach New Heights

The North Carolina U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis may go down to the wire next Tuesday, but along the way Libertarian nominee Sean Haugh is poised to set a state record for a non-major party candidate. Haugh, who previously won 1.5 percent of the vote in the Tar Heel State's 2002 race, has polled at or above five percent in 10 of the last 12 polls that included his name. The current high water mark for a third party or independent candidate in a North Carolina U.S. Senate election is just 3.3 percent, recorded by Libertarian Robert Emory back in 1992. Only one other candidate has eclipsed the three percent mark - Libertarian Christopher Cole with 3.1 percent in 2008.


Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


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