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Kentucky, Oregon Wrap Up: Smart Politics Projections Hit the Target

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As Barack Obama wrapped up the pledged delegate war several weeks ago, the remaining battle for the democratic nomination had two remaining and interrelated battlefronts: momentum and the popular vote. Hillary Clinton's aim since mid-March has thus not simply been to win states to gain momentum and appear to be the more 'electable' candidate, but to win them by large enough margins to eventually catch Obama in the popular vote count. Clinton is on pace to do just that.

On May 14, the day after the West Virginia primary, Smart Politics made popular vote projections for the Kentucky and Oregon primaries.

In Kentucky:

  • Smart Politics projection: 243,000 net vote gain for Clinton

  • Primary results: 249,269 net vote gain for Clinton

  • Difference: 6,269 vote underestimate for Clinton

In Oregon:

  • Smart Politics projection: 99,000 net vote gain for Obama

  • Primary results: 108,458 net vote gain for Obama (99% of precincts reporting)

  • Difference: 9,458 vote underestimate for Obama

Smart Politics projected a total net gain of 144,000 votes for Clinton for the May 20th primaries. The final results: Clinton gained a net 140,811 votes—a difference of just 3,189 votes.

In sum, out of more than 1.3 million votes cast in the Democratic primary on May 20th, Smart Politics' projected net vote gain for Clinton was off by just 0.2 percent.

Previous post: Live Blog: Oregon Primary
Next post: Obama Sustains Advantage Over McCain in Iowa

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Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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