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Kentucky, Oregon Wrap Up: Smart Politics Projections Hit the Target

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As Barack Obama wrapped up the pledged delegate war several weeks ago, the remaining battle for the democratic nomination had two remaining and interrelated battlefronts: momentum and the popular vote. Hillary Clinton's aim since mid-March has thus not simply been to win states to gain momentum and appear to be the more 'electable' candidate, but to win them by large enough margins to eventually catch Obama in the popular vote count. Clinton is on pace to do just that.

On May 14, the day after the West Virginia primary, Smart Politics made popular vote projections for the Kentucky and Oregon primaries.

In Kentucky:

  • Smart Politics projection: 243,000 net vote gain for Clinton

  • Primary results: 249,269 net vote gain for Clinton

  • Difference: 6,269 vote underestimate for Clinton

In Oregon:

  • Smart Politics projection: 99,000 net vote gain for Obama

  • Primary results: 108,458 net vote gain for Obama (99% of precincts reporting)

  • Difference: 9,458 vote underestimate for Obama

Smart Politics projected a total net gain of 144,000 votes for Clinton for the May 20th primaries. The final results: Clinton gained a net 140,811 votes—a difference of just 3,189 votes.

In sum, out of more than 1.3 million votes cast in the Democratic primary on May 20th, Smart Politics' projected net vote gain for Clinton was off by just 0.2 percent.

Previous post: Live Blog: Oregon Primary
Next post: Obama Sustains Advantage Over McCain in Iowa

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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