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Live Blog: Kentucky Primary

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5:50 p.m. (9% reporting)
Clinton = 50%
Obama = 46%

Over 80 percent of the vote that has reported in is from Jefferson County - home to Louisville - one of the few locales in Kentucky where Obama is expected to do well.

5:55 p.m. (11% reporting)
Clinton = 51%
Obama = 46%

6:00 p.m. MSNBC, CNN, and Fox News all project Hillary Clinton has won the Kentucky primary. This is the 18th state Clinton has won, plus Florida, Michigan, and American Samoa. Obama has won 27 states, plus D.C., the Texas caucuses, Guam, and the Virgin Islands.

6:02 p.m. Clinton has now won states with 291 Electoral College votes. Obama has won states with just 217 Electoral College votes.

6:08 p.m. Clinton's post-primary strategy of convincing superdelegates that she is the more electable Democratic candidate just got a boost from a new poll out today from SurveyUSA. Although Obama won the Democratic primary by 14 points, 56 to 42 percent, Hillary Clinton has a 14-point advantage over Obama in respective general election matchups against John McCain. The survey of 713 likely North Carolina voters found McCain defeating Obama 51 to 43 percent, but Clinton beating McCain 49 to 43 percent. Once upon a time, it was Obama who was carrying independent and moderate voters, but, in North Carolina, Clinton outperforms Obama (and McCain) among both groups.

6:11 p.m. (20% reporting)
Clinton = 52%
Obama = 45%

6:15 p.m. (22% reporting)
Clinton = 54%
Obama = 43%

6:19 p.m. (24% reporting)
Clinton = 55%
Obama = 41%

6:33 p.m. (32% reporting)
Clinton = 54%
Obama = 43%

6:40 p.m. (37% reporting)
Clinton = 55%
Obama = 41%

6:46 p.m. (41% reporting)
Clinton = 57%
Obama = 40%

6:50 p.m. (43% reporting)
Clinton = 58%
Obama = 39%

6:59 p.m. (52% reporting)
Clinton = 59%
Obama = 37%

Clinton's net vote advantage in Kentucky is now up to 97,000. She will need that margin to exceed 200,000 or 225,000 to make a large dent in Obama's 411,000 overall popular vote lead.

7:06 p.m. (55% reporting)
Clinton = 62%
Obama = 34%

7:11 p.m. (60% reporting)
Clinton = 64%
Obama = 32%

7:18 p.m. In the opening of Hillary Clinton's victory speech in Kentucky she wisely takes the first few minutes to talk about Ted Kennedy. Clinton says that she is "winning the popular vote." That statement is technically accurate, but only if one includes Michigan in the vote tally. Clinton's argument that she won the most popular votes will likely fall on deaf ears unless she wins the vote without counting Michigan, where Obama's name was not on the ballot.

7:23 p.m. (70% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 31%

Clinton's net vote advantage in Kentucky has now risen to 160,000 votes.

7:33 p.m. (77% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 31%

Clinton now leads by 177,000 votes.

7:36 p.m. (83% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 31%

Clinton now leads Obama by 191,000 votes and is poised to eclipse the 200,000 net vote advantage as projected earlier in the week by Smart Politics.

7:42 p.m. (88% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

Clinton now leads by 205,000 votes in Kentucky and has a 35-point advantage over Obama with 12 percent of precincts yet to report.

8:31 p.m. (97% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

Clinton's current 240,500 vote advantage is just shy of the 243,000 vote victory margin Smart Politics projected on May 14th. It appears Clinton will slightly exceed that margin.

8:54 p.m. (99% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

Clinton has now gained 247,000 votes on Obama.

9:10 p.m. (100% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton gained a net 249,192 votes on Obama -- just 6,192 more votes than projected by Smart Politics a week ago.

Previous post: KY, OR Primary: Live Blog Tonight
Next post: Live Blog: Oregon Primary


Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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