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Live Blog: Kentucky Primary

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5:50 p.m. (9% reporting)
Clinton = 50%
Obama = 46%

Over 80 percent of the vote that has reported in is from Jefferson County - home to Louisville - one of the few locales in Kentucky where Obama is expected to do well.

5:55 p.m. (11% reporting)
Clinton = 51%
Obama = 46%

6:00 p.m. MSNBC, CNN, and Fox News all project Hillary Clinton has won the Kentucky primary. This is the 18th state Clinton has won, plus Florida, Michigan, and American Samoa. Obama has won 27 states, plus D.C., the Texas caucuses, Guam, and the Virgin Islands.

6:02 p.m. Clinton has now won states with 291 Electoral College votes. Obama has won states with just 217 Electoral College votes.

6:08 p.m. Clinton's post-primary strategy of convincing superdelegates that she is the more electable Democratic candidate just got a boost from a new poll out today from SurveyUSA. Although Obama won the Democratic primary by 14 points, 56 to 42 percent, Hillary Clinton has a 14-point advantage over Obama in respective general election matchups against John McCain. The survey of 713 likely North Carolina voters found McCain defeating Obama 51 to 43 percent, but Clinton beating McCain 49 to 43 percent. Once upon a time, it was Obama who was carrying independent and moderate voters, but, in North Carolina, Clinton outperforms Obama (and McCain) among both groups.

6:11 p.m. (20% reporting)
Clinton = 52%
Obama = 45%

6:15 p.m. (22% reporting)
Clinton = 54%
Obama = 43%

6:19 p.m. (24% reporting)
Clinton = 55%
Obama = 41%

6:33 p.m. (32% reporting)
Clinton = 54%
Obama = 43%

6:40 p.m. (37% reporting)
Clinton = 55%
Obama = 41%

6:46 p.m. (41% reporting)
Clinton = 57%
Obama = 40%

6:50 p.m. (43% reporting)
Clinton = 58%
Obama = 39%

6:59 p.m. (52% reporting)
Clinton = 59%
Obama = 37%

Clinton's net vote advantage in Kentucky is now up to 97,000. She will need that margin to exceed 200,000 or 225,000 to make a large dent in Obama's 411,000 overall popular vote lead.

7:06 p.m. (55% reporting)
Clinton = 62%
Obama = 34%

7:11 p.m. (60% reporting)
Clinton = 64%
Obama = 32%

7:18 p.m. In the opening of Hillary Clinton's victory speech in Kentucky she wisely takes the first few minutes to talk about Ted Kennedy. Clinton says that she is "winning the popular vote." That statement is technically accurate, but only if one includes Michigan in the vote tally. Clinton's argument that she won the most popular votes will likely fall on deaf ears unless she wins the vote without counting Michigan, where Obama's name was not on the ballot.

7:23 p.m. (70% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 31%

Clinton's net vote advantage in Kentucky has now risen to 160,000 votes.

7:33 p.m. (77% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 31%

Clinton now leads by 177,000 votes.

7:36 p.m. (83% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 31%

Clinton now leads Obama by 191,000 votes and is poised to eclipse the 200,000 net vote advantage as projected earlier in the week by Smart Politics.

7:42 p.m. (88% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

Clinton now leads by 205,000 votes in Kentucky and has a 35-point advantage over Obama with 12 percent of precincts yet to report.

8:31 p.m. (97% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

Clinton's current 240,500 vote advantage is just shy of the 243,000 vote victory margin Smart Politics projected on May 14th. It appears Clinton will slightly exceed that margin.

8:54 p.m. (99% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

Clinton has now gained 247,000 votes on Obama.

9:10 p.m. (100% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton gained a net 249,192 votes on Obama -- just 6,192 more votes than projected by Smart Politics a week ago.

Previous post: KY, OR Primary: Live Blog Tonight
Next post: Live Blog: Oregon Primary


Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Small Club in St. Paul

Mark Dayton is one of just three Minnesotans ever elected to three different statewide offices. Dayton, of course, had previously served as State Auditor (1991-1995) and U.S. Senator (2001-2007) before winning the governorship in 2010. At that time, he joined Republicans Edward Thye and J.A.A. Burnquist on this very short list. Burnquist was elected lieutenant governor in 1914 but then became governor after the death of Democrat Winfield Hammond in 1915. He then won the gubernatorial elections of 1916 and 1918 and eight terms as attorney general two decades later (1939-1955). Thye was similarly first elected lieutenant governor of the Gopher State and became governor after the resignation of fellow GOPer Harold Stasson in 1943. Thye won one additional full term as governor in 1944 and then two terms to the U.S. Senate (1947-1959). Twenty Minnesotans have been elected to two different statewide offices.


Respect Your Elders?

With retirement announcements this year by veteran U.S. Representatives such as 30-term Democrat John Dingell of Michigan, 20-term Democrat George Miller of California, and 18-term Republican Tom Petri of Wisconsin, it is no surprise that retirees from the 113th Congress are one of the most experienced cohorts in recent decades. Overall, these 24 exiting members of the House have served an average of 11.0 terms - the second longest tenure among retirees across the last 18 cycles since 1980. Only the U.S. Representatives retiring in 2006 had more experience, averaging 11.9 terms. (In that cycle, 10 of the 11 retiring members served at least 10 terms, with GOPer Bill Jenkins of Tennessee the lone exception at just five). Even without the aforementioned Dingell, the average length of service in the chamber of the remaining 23 retirees in 2014 is 10.2 terms - which would still be the third highest since 1980 behind the 2006 and 2012 (10.5 terms) cycles.


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