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Live Blog: Kentucky Primary

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5:50 p.m. (9% reporting)
Clinton = 50%
Obama = 46%

Over 80 percent of the vote that has reported in is from Jefferson County - home to Louisville - one of the few locales in Kentucky where Obama is expected to do well.

5:55 p.m. (11% reporting)
Clinton = 51%
Obama = 46%

6:00 p.m. MSNBC, CNN, and Fox News all project Hillary Clinton has won the Kentucky primary. This is the 18th state Clinton has won, plus Florida, Michigan, and American Samoa. Obama has won 27 states, plus D.C., the Texas caucuses, Guam, and the Virgin Islands.

6:02 p.m. Clinton has now won states with 291 Electoral College votes. Obama has won states with just 217 Electoral College votes.

6:08 p.m. Clinton's post-primary strategy of convincing superdelegates that she is the more electable Democratic candidate just got a boost from a new poll out today from SurveyUSA. Although Obama won the Democratic primary by 14 points, 56 to 42 percent, Hillary Clinton has a 14-point advantage over Obama in respective general election matchups against John McCain. The survey of 713 likely North Carolina voters found McCain defeating Obama 51 to 43 percent, but Clinton beating McCain 49 to 43 percent. Once upon a time, it was Obama who was carrying independent and moderate voters, but, in North Carolina, Clinton outperforms Obama (and McCain) among both groups.

6:11 p.m. (20% reporting)
Clinton = 52%
Obama = 45%

6:15 p.m. (22% reporting)
Clinton = 54%
Obama = 43%

6:19 p.m. (24% reporting)
Clinton = 55%
Obama = 41%

6:33 p.m. (32% reporting)
Clinton = 54%
Obama = 43%

6:40 p.m. (37% reporting)
Clinton = 55%
Obama = 41%

6:46 p.m. (41% reporting)
Clinton = 57%
Obama = 40%

6:50 p.m. (43% reporting)
Clinton = 58%
Obama = 39%

6:59 p.m. (52% reporting)
Clinton = 59%
Obama = 37%

Clinton's net vote advantage in Kentucky is now up to 97,000. She will need that margin to exceed 200,000 or 225,000 to make a large dent in Obama's 411,000 overall popular vote lead.

7:06 p.m. (55% reporting)
Clinton = 62%
Obama = 34%

7:11 p.m. (60% reporting)
Clinton = 64%
Obama = 32%

7:18 p.m. In the opening of Hillary Clinton's victory speech in Kentucky she wisely takes the first few minutes to talk about Ted Kennedy. Clinton says that she is "winning the popular vote." That statement is technically accurate, but only if one includes Michigan in the vote tally. Clinton's argument that she won the most popular votes will likely fall on deaf ears unless she wins the vote without counting Michigan, where Obama's name was not on the ballot.

7:23 p.m. (70% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 31%

Clinton's net vote advantage in Kentucky has now risen to 160,000 votes.

7:33 p.m. (77% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 31%

Clinton now leads by 177,000 votes.

7:36 p.m. (83% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 31%

Clinton now leads Obama by 191,000 votes and is poised to eclipse the 200,000 net vote advantage as projected earlier in the week by Smart Politics.

7:42 p.m. (88% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

Clinton now leads by 205,000 votes in Kentucky and has a 35-point advantage over Obama with 12 percent of precincts yet to report.

8:31 p.m. (97% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

Clinton's current 240,500 vote advantage is just shy of the 243,000 vote victory margin Smart Politics projected on May 14th. It appears Clinton will slightly exceed that margin.

8:54 p.m. (99% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

Clinton has now gained 247,000 votes on Obama.

9:10 p.m. (100% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton gained a net 249,192 votes on Obama -- just 6,192 more votes than projected by Smart Politics a week ago.

Previous post: KY, OR Primary: Live Blog Tonight
Next post: Live Blog: Oregon Primary


Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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