Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Live Blog: Kentucky Primary

Bookmark and Share

5:50 p.m. (9% reporting)
Clinton = 50%
Obama = 46%

Over 80 percent of the vote that has reported in is from Jefferson County - home to Louisville - one of the few locales in Kentucky where Obama is expected to do well.

5:55 p.m. (11% reporting)
Clinton = 51%
Obama = 46%

6:00 p.m. MSNBC, CNN, and Fox News all project Hillary Clinton has won the Kentucky primary. This is the 18th state Clinton has won, plus Florida, Michigan, and American Samoa. Obama has won 27 states, plus D.C., the Texas caucuses, Guam, and the Virgin Islands.

6:02 p.m. Clinton has now won states with 291 Electoral College votes. Obama has won states with just 217 Electoral College votes.

6:08 p.m. Clinton's post-primary strategy of convincing superdelegates that she is the more electable Democratic candidate just got a boost from a new poll out today from SurveyUSA. Although Obama won the Democratic primary by 14 points, 56 to 42 percent, Hillary Clinton has a 14-point advantage over Obama in respective general election matchups against John McCain. The survey of 713 likely North Carolina voters found McCain defeating Obama 51 to 43 percent, but Clinton beating McCain 49 to 43 percent. Once upon a time, it was Obama who was carrying independent and moderate voters, but, in North Carolina, Clinton outperforms Obama (and McCain) among both groups.

6:11 p.m. (20% reporting)
Clinton = 52%
Obama = 45%

6:15 p.m. (22% reporting)
Clinton = 54%
Obama = 43%

6:19 p.m. (24% reporting)
Clinton = 55%
Obama = 41%

6:33 p.m. (32% reporting)
Clinton = 54%
Obama = 43%

6:40 p.m. (37% reporting)
Clinton = 55%
Obama = 41%

6:46 p.m. (41% reporting)
Clinton = 57%
Obama = 40%

6:50 p.m. (43% reporting)
Clinton = 58%
Obama = 39%

6:59 p.m. (52% reporting)
Clinton = 59%
Obama = 37%

Clinton's net vote advantage in Kentucky is now up to 97,000. She will need that margin to exceed 200,000 or 225,000 to make a large dent in Obama's 411,000 overall popular vote lead.

7:06 p.m. (55% reporting)
Clinton = 62%
Obama = 34%

7:11 p.m. (60% reporting)
Clinton = 64%
Obama = 32%

7:18 p.m. In the opening of Hillary Clinton's victory speech in Kentucky she wisely takes the first few minutes to talk about Ted Kennedy. Clinton says that she is "winning the popular vote." That statement is technically accurate, but only if one includes Michigan in the vote tally. Clinton's argument that she won the most popular votes will likely fall on deaf ears unless she wins the vote without counting Michigan, where Obama's name was not on the ballot.

7:23 p.m. (70% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 31%

Clinton's net vote advantage in Kentucky has now risen to 160,000 votes.

7:33 p.m. (77% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 31%

Clinton now leads by 177,000 votes.

7:36 p.m. (83% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 31%

Clinton now leads Obama by 191,000 votes and is poised to eclipse the 200,000 net vote advantage as projected earlier in the week by Smart Politics.

7:42 p.m. (88% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

Clinton now leads by 205,000 votes in Kentucky and has a 35-point advantage over Obama with 12 percent of precincts yet to report.

8:31 p.m. (97% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

Clinton's current 240,500 vote advantage is just shy of the 243,000 vote victory margin Smart Politics projected on May 14th. It appears Clinton will slightly exceed that margin.

8:54 p.m. (99% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

Clinton has now gained 247,000 votes on Obama.

9:10 p.m. (100% reporting)
Clinton = 65%
Obama = 30%

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton gained a net 249,192 votes on Obama -- just 6,192 more votes than projected by Smart Politics a week ago.

Previous post: KY, OR Primary: Live Blog Tonight
Next post: Live Blog: Oregon Primary


Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting