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Polls in KY, OR: Someone Forgot to Tell the Voters 'It's Over'

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Although the media, several prominent Democrats, and even some pollsters (Rasmussen) called the Democratic race 'over' even after Hillary Clinton's 41-point blowout victory in West Virginia, Democratic voters are apparently saying otherwise. Several polls point to 60-plus percent of Democratic voters wanting Hillary Clinton to stay in the race, and the latest surveys out of Kentucky and Oregon show more momentum for the junior Senator from New York.

In Kentucky—a state Smart Politics placed in Clinton's column months ago—a new American Research Group poll of 600 likely voters gives Clinton a West Virginia-esque 65 to 29 percent advantage (May 14-15).

In Oregon—a state the media declared Obama would win easily during its primary night coverage last Tuesday—Obama holds a narrow 5-point lead: 50 to 45 percent (May 14-15). Polls conducted before the West Virginia primary staked Obama to 20-point (Portland Tribune), and 11-point (SurveyUSA) leads.

Even if Obama scores a victory in Oregon—which he is expected to given his near clean sweep of the West so far this primary season—it will not make much of a dent in the few hundred thousand net vote advantage Clinton will win in Kentucky.

Worse still, some states that Obama won during the primary season now also seem to be trending towards Clinton as the stronger Democratic candidate. A new Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters in Kansas give John McCain a 21-point advantage over Obama (55 to 34 percent), but only a 14-point advantage over Clinton (53 to 39 percent). Obama won the Kansas caucuses on Super Tuesday by a resounding 74 to 26 percent margin.

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Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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