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Polls in KY, OR: Someone Forgot to Tell the Voters 'It's Over'

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Although the media, several prominent Democrats, and even some pollsters (Rasmussen) called the Democratic race 'over' even after Hillary Clinton's 41-point blowout victory in West Virginia, Democratic voters are apparently saying otherwise. Several polls point to 60-plus percent of Democratic voters wanting Hillary Clinton to stay in the race, and the latest surveys out of Kentucky and Oregon show more momentum for the junior Senator from New York.

In Kentucky—a state Smart Politics placed in Clinton's column months ago—a new American Research Group poll of 600 likely voters gives Clinton a West Virginia-esque 65 to 29 percent advantage (May 14-15).

In Oregon—a state the media declared Obama would win easily during its primary night coverage last Tuesday—Obama holds a narrow 5-point lead: 50 to 45 percent (May 14-15). Polls conducted before the West Virginia primary staked Obama to 20-point (Portland Tribune), and 11-point (SurveyUSA) leads.

Even if Obama scores a victory in Oregon—which he is expected to given his near clean sweep of the West so far this primary season—it will not make much of a dent in the few hundred thousand net vote advantage Clinton will win in Kentucky.

Worse still, some states that Obama won during the primary season now also seem to be trending towards Clinton as the stronger Democratic candidate. A new Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters in Kansas give John McCain a 21-point advantage over Obama (55 to 34 percent), but only a 14-point advantage over Clinton (53 to 39 percent). Obama won the Kansas caucuses on Super Tuesday by a resounding 74 to 26 percent margin.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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