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Polls in KY, OR: Someone Forgot to Tell the Voters 'It's Over'

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Although the media, several prominent Democrats, and even some pollsters (Rasmussen) called the Democratic race 'over' even after Hillary Clinton's 41-point blowout victory in West Virginia, Democratic voters are apparently saying otherwise. Several polls point to 60-plus percent of Democratic voters wanting Hillary Clinton to stay in the race, and the latest surveys out of Kentucky and Oregon show more momentum for the junior Senator from New York.

In Kentucky—a state Smart Politics placed in Clinton's column months ago—a new American Research Group poll of 600 likely voters gives Clinton a West Virginia-esque 65 to 29 percent advantage (May 14-15).

In Oregon—a state the media declared Obama would win easily during its primary night coverage last Tuesday—Obama holds a narrow 5-point lead: 50 to 45 percent (May 14-15). Polls conducted before the West Virginia primary staked Obama to 20-point (Portland Tribune), and 11-point (SurveyUSA) leads.

Even if Obama scores a victory in Oregon—which he is expected to given his near clean sweep of the West so far this primary season—it will not make much of a dent in the few hundred thousand net vote advantage Clinton will win in Kentucky.

Worse still, some states that Obama won during the primary season now also seem to be trending towards Clinton as the stronger Democratic candidate. A new Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters in Kansas give John McCain a 21-point advantage over Obama (55 to 34 percent), but only a 14-point advantage over Clinton (53 to 39 percent). Obama won the Kansas caucuses on Super Tuesday by a resounding 74 to 26 percent margin.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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