A Suffolk University poll of 600 likely voters in Oregon this weekend (May 17-18) now measures the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to be within 4 points. This echoes the findings of American Research Group polls last week that measured Obama's advantage at 5 points.
The West Virginia primary rout by Clinton last Tuesday appears to have created doubt in the minds of some Oregonian Democrats as to whether they now want Obama to be their nominee (Obama was leading in the polls by 10 to 20 points in Oregon prior to the West Virginia primary).
In the new Suffolk poll, Obama receives the support of 45 percent of likely voters, with Clinton at 41 percent. Eight percent were undecided and 6 percent refused to answer.
The Obama campaign has stated it will not 'declare victory' Tuesday night if it receives the number of delegates it believes will win them the nomination. This might be a smart tactic, considering such a victory speech would come on a night with Clinton picking up a few hundred thousands votes, Clinton winning Kentucky by 25+ points, and Obama potentially not knowing whether or not he won Oregon until late into the night on the East coast and in the Central time zone.
A Suffolk poll of 600 likely voters in Kentucky, also conducted May 17-18, measured Clinton's lead at 51 to 25 percent, with John Edwards (whose name will be on the ballot) at 6 percent, and 11 percent undecided. An equal number of Democrats in Kentucky have a favorable view of the junior Senator from Illinois as those that have an unfavorable view (43 percent). Clinton is viewed favorably by 79 percent of its Democratic voters.
In Oregon, both candidates are viewed quite favorably: Obama at 73 percent and Clinton at 69 percent.
I think you'd better comment on this article and poll given the final result.
Smart Politics' May 21st entry ("Kentucky, Oregon Wrap Up: Smart Politics Projections Hit the Target") sums up my analysis of the Oregon and Kentucky primaries. While the ARG numbers obviously did not reflect the larger margin of Obama's primary victory, Smart Politics' projections (made the week before, on May 14th) were dead-on accurate. Since Oregonians were able to cast their votes for a few weeks before primary day, it is possible the ARG poll did account for those who had already voted (those who would have voted before Clinton's potential West Virginia 'bounce').
Smart Politics has been and will continue to be accountable for its own election projections; easy enough to do, as no other political blog in the Gopher State (or region) has as accurate a track record as this blog.