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Will West Virignia and Kentucky Make A Difference for Clinton?

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Those who have been reading Smart Politics during the past two months should not have been surprised that Hillary Clinton both won the Indiana primary on Tuesday night and also decided to continue her campaign the next day, despite strong pressure by the media, pundits, and some Democratic politicians for her to drop out of the race.

On the near horizon, Clinton can expect two more wins in the states of West Virginia (next week) and Kentucky (on March 20th). Oregon will also hold its primary on March 20th, but, although Obama is projected to win that state, it should be a fairly close race—without any significant effect on the delegate or popular vote counts.

Even Clinton supporters will acknowledge the Senator from New York will not win the pledged delegate count. If she is to make inroads with superdelegates in the coming weeks, she not only needs to string together many more victories to help define her campaign in the media as the one with the momentum, but, equally important, she also needs to close the gap in Obama's popular vote lead amassed so far in the 2008 campaign.

Obama currently leads Clinton by approximately 415,000 votes—that total includes votes cast in Florida, but not Michigan (which did not have Obama's name on the ballot). It also does not include vote totals in the Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington caucuses (states in which official numbers have not been released).

Clinton is hoping for big turnouts in West Virginia and Kentucky, where she is currently leading Obama in the polls by about 30 points.

Smart Politics estimates that Clinton can make a significant dent in Obama's popular vote lead in the next two weeks - perhaps reducing it almost in half. Here is the math:

  • Smart Politics calculated the 2004 general election presidential vote total of neighboring states in the West Viriginia/Kentucky region (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, and North Carolina). This amounted to about 21.8 million votes.
  • The number of votes case in the 2008 Democratic primaries in these states totaled approximately 8.8 million.
  • Thus, in the region, people are coming out to vote in the Democratic primaries at a rate of about 40 percent of the general election turnout in those states in 2004.
  • Assuming this 40 percent stays true to form in West Virginia and Kentucky (though the turnout might be higher because of the high profile the states will receive in the coming days), approximately 302,000 will come out to vote for the Democrats in West Virginia, and 718,000 in Kentucky.
  • Obama will likely close the gap a bit in these states, so let's say Clinton only rolls by 20 points in each state, not 30 points. Clinton would then pick up about 144,000 votes in Kentucky and about 60,000 votes in West Virginia.
  • That would reduce Obama's lead in the popular vote by nearly half, from 415,000 to just 211,000.

Clinton is not likely to pass Obama in the popular vote total, but the more she can make the numbers looks "about even," the more she can point to momentum as the key factor in her attempt to sway superdelegates to her side.

Her other mathematical weapon is the Electoral College vote total: Clinton has now won states that have 278 Electoral College votes, compared to just 217 for Obama (Clinton's total, again, includes Florida, but not Michigan).

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2 Comments


  • What you have posted is true if the fourty point scenario holds up, but the aurgument about the electoral college votes will not persuade....Almost any Dem will get new york and California and Florida can go either way...its just not a guarantee no matter what the polls say.
    So Obama and Clinton are dead even except for the fact he will continue his lead in delegates

  • My friend Mike Marcum is from West Virginia but grew up in Daytona so I will hope some of his family finds these words. As an Independent I respect West V. voting different parties in an out of national office. I am originally from the coal region of PA. so I want coal to be in the future of America's energy needs. I believe oil people have painted coal as dirty just to gain market share. Now it is time for West Virginia voters to decide whether R or D will be best for WV and PA. I really am concerned with the big oil folks in Alaska setting the energy future for America. So now we need a few folks in WV to decide R or D is best for the coal industry and the hard working miners. Thanks for accepting this challenge to WV.

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    Remains of the Data

    Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

    The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

    Political Crumbs

    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    Home Field Advantage?

    When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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