Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


June 2008


The Upper Midwestern Voting Bloc in Presidential Elections

Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin have been (correctly) labeled as key battleground states in recent presidential elections. With the exception of George W. Bush’s narrow victory in the Hawkeye State in 2004, the three states have voted as a bloc dating back to 1988, when Michael Dukakis swept the region. However,...

Presidential Politics in Wisconsin: A Historical Overview

Since Wisconsinites cast their first presidential ballots in 1848, approximately 900,000 more votes have been cast for Republican presidential nominees than Democrats, out of more than 43.2 million votes cast across 40 presidential elections. Wisconsin has been on the winning side of Presidential politics in three-quarters (75 percent) of elections...

Bush Approval Rating Hits All-Time Low in Minnesota

Buried beneath the new horserace numbers coming from the Quinnipiac poll released today of 1,572 likely Minnesota voters is even more sobering news for President George W. Bush (and, perhaps, John McCain) as he finishes his second term: Bush’s approval rating has dipped to an all-time record low of 24...

Quinnipiac: Obama Breaks Out to Double Digit Leads in MN, WI

Polls released this morning by Quinnipiac University of more than 1,500 likely voters in both Minnesota and Wisconsin show Barack Obama staked to his largest lead to date over John McCain in each battleground state. In Minnesota, the poll (which, due to its large sample size has a margin of...

SD: McCain 44%, Obama 40% (Rasmussen) IA: Obama 51%, McCain 41% (Rasmussen) MN: Obama 52%, McCain 35% (Rasmussen) WI: Obama 50%, McCain 39% (Rasmussen) ND: Obama 43%, McCain 43% (Rasmussen)...

MN Senate: Coleman 52%, Franken 40% (SurveyUSA) MN Senate: Coleman 48%, Franken 45% (Rasmussen) MN Senate: Coleman 41%, Franken 31%, Ventura 23% (SurveyUSA) MN Senate: Coleman 39%, Franken 32%, Ventura 24% (Rasmussen) WI: Obama 50%, McCain 37% (Badger Poll)...

Why Is Obama Talking About Religion?

Barack Obama's recent comments on religion's problematic role when mixed with government—along with his citation of certain Biblical passages as evidence of this point—have now once again raised the specter of his own religious beliefs. Obama's comments not only renewed his political feud with Dr. James Dobson, founder of Focus...

Déjà Vu: McCain-Obama Margin Same as Bush-Kerrry 4 Years Ago

The political landscape has changed greatly during the past four years—increased opposition to the war in Iraq, greater Democratic party identification, greater support for generic Democratic candidates for the U.S. House, and a 20-point decrease in President George W. Bush's approval. While all of these factors conspire to the benefit...

Obama in Iowa and Minnesota: Standing Where Kerry Stood in 2004

Barack Obama has enjoyed not only a lead over John McCain in all but one of more than 25 national polls conducted since early May 2008, but also a consistent advantage in early polling in two key Upper Midwestern battleground states: Iowa and Minnesota. However, Obama's lead in these states—which...

Smart Politics is one of the most regularly cited academic-based non-partisan political news sites in the country - frequently referenced and featured by national and local news outlets as well as educators that yearn for an unbiased, data-based approach to the analysis of politics and policy. Drawing from its extensive...

What Are the Odds of a Third Straight Republican Term in the White House?

Opponents of Republican presidential nominee John McCain have been trying to derail his campaign by tying him to the hugely unpopular George W. Bush. Bush's approval numbers are still trickling downwards—now in the high 20s to low 30s in most national polls. One of the tactics used by the Democrats...

New SurveyUSA Poll: Obama and McCain in Dead Heat in Minnesota

A new SurveyUSA poll of 543 likely voters in Minnesota finds the race for president much closer than the findings from recent polls conducted in the state. In the SurveyUSA poll, John McCain is in a statistical tie with Barack Obama, trailing 47 to 46 percent, with 7 percent undecided....

The Race Issue In Wisconsin

The University of Wisconsin's latest Badger Poll (conducted June 8-10 of 506 likely voters) provides an illuminating snapshot about its residents' views on race in America—or at least what they are willing to tell a pollster in a telephone interview. The poll revealed, firstly, that the Badger State is currently...

Historical Snapshot: U.S. House Races in Minnesota

After picking up one seat in the 2006 election, the DFL eyes another in 2008. The retirement of Republican Jim Ramstad, after 18 years of service, opens up a competitive 6th Congressional District. The DFL has enjoyed success in U.S. House races in recent years, particularly since 1976 when Minnesota...

Coleman Retains Small Lead Over Franken; Ventura Candidacy Looms

Norm Coleman continues to lead Al Franken in his defense of his U.S. Senate seat, by 48 to 45 percent, according to a poll of 500 likely voters by Rasmussen. The poll, conducted on Wednesday, June 11th, finds no bounce for Franken coming out of last weekend's DFL convention, in...

Obama Leads McCain in Iowa in 18th Consecutive Poll

Barack Obama is leading John McCain in the important battleground state of Iowa for the 18th consecutive matchup poll, dating back to December 2006. The new poll, conducted June 10th of 500 likely voters by Rasmussen, gives Obama a 45 to 38 percent advantage, with 7 percent supporting some other...

MN 2002 U.S. Senate Election Revisited: Norm Coleman and the St. Paul Vote

In an interview on public radio this week, Al Franken mentioned that Norm Coleman lost all of his hometown St. Paul precincts in the 2002 election for U.S. Senate. Coleman was currently serving his last months as the mayor of St. Paul and had been elected as a Republican for...

Poll: Wisconsin Presidential Matchup Remains Deadlocked

A new Rasmussen survey conducted June 5th of 500 likely voters in the Badger State finds Barack Obama leading John McCain 45 to 43 percent—within the poll's margin of error. Six percent would support some other candidate and six percent were undecided. The new poll continues a 3-month trend with...

Vice-Presidential Running Mates: When Will We Know?

With the general election campaign officially underway, speculation continues as to whether or not Barack Obama will pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate. On the Republican side, buoyed by his appearance on Fox News Sunday morning, many insiders believe long-time McCain supporter Governor Tim Pawlenty is either McCain's number...

Al Franken Wins DFL Endorsement for U.S. Senate

Actor, writer, and satirist Al Franken won the DFL endorsement for U.S. Senate at the party's convention this weekend in Rochester. Franken defeated college professor Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer on the first ballot. The endorsement comes as little surprise, although Franken had been put on the defensive in recent days—particularly by women's...

Obama vs. McCain: Five Months Out

Although Election Day is nearly five months away, the vast number of state polling conducted in recent weeks makes it difficult to resist assessing the current lay of the land in the general campaign matchup between Barack Obama and John McCain as it stands today. Nonpartisan polling organizations have conducted...

Smart Politics Interviews Minnesota Monitor

Last December, Smart Politics interviewed Michael Brodkorb, author of the high profile conservative blog Minnesota Democrats Exposed. We now turn the spotlight on a journalistic voice of the political left, Minnesota Monitor. Minnesota Monitor is a popular online newsmagazine that covers not only state and national politics and elections, but...

Credits

Smart Politics was redesigned in Summer 2008 by Graham Lampa. Smart Politics header image of the Minnesota State Capital courtesy of flickr user tboard and used under a Creative Commons license. Smart Politics logo by Heidi Sandstad, Graphic Designer....

MN Senate: Coleman 47%, Franken 45% (Rasmussen) MN: Obama 47%, McCain 42% (SurveyUSA) MN: Obama 53%, McCain 38% (Rasmussen) IA: Obama 47%, McCain 38% (SurveyUSA) WI: Obama 48%, McCain 42% (SurveyUSA)...

Live Blog: Montana Primary

9:00 p.m. CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC have all called the state of Montana for Barack Obama. Obama ends the primary campaign with victories in 29 states, plus the District of Columbia, Virgin Islands, and Guam. Obama also won the Texas caucus. Clinton ended up winning 20 states plus Michigan,...

Live Blog: South Dakota Primary

8:00 p.m. CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News have all called Barack Obama the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party, having culled together enough superdelegates today and enough votes (> 30 percent) in South Dakota. 8:06 p.m. (9% reporting) Clinton = 56% Obama = 44% 8:12 p.m. Fox News has called...

South Dakota and Montana Preview; ARG Finds Clinton Up 26 Points in SD

Even as Hillary Clinton racked up victories in Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico, political analysts (echoed by cable news anchors) forecasted the final presidential primary contests on June 3rd (South Dakota and Montana) as "Obama states." This hasty analysis by political commentators and anchors was driven by...

Would Pawlenty Deliver Minnesota to McCain As VP Nominee?

Minnesota Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty has been one of just a handful of names floated by the media and Republican strategists over the past year as a potential Vice Presidential running mate to John McCain. The national attention on Pawlenty is significant and unusual. Pawlenty's credentials for being added...