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Al Franken Wins DFL Endorsement for U.S. Senate

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Actor, writer, and satirist Al Franken won the DFL endorsement for U.S. Senate at the party's convention this weekend in Rochester. Franken defeated college professor Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer on the first ballot.

The endorsement comes as little surprise, although Franken had been put on the defensive in recent days—particularly by women's groups—for various articles and (purportedly satirical) comments he had made during the past decade and a half as a comedian.

Still, Franken has long been touted as the DFL's best bet to defeat 1-term Republican incumbent Norm Coleman, especially since Mike Ciresi dropped out of the race earlier this year. Franken has polled within 10 points or less of Coleman in each of the last 10+ public polls, including leading Coleman by three points in Rasmussen and HHH / MPR polls back in mid-February and late January respectively. Nelson-Pallmeyer was routinely trailing Coleman by close to 30 points in most public opinion polls.

The Franken vs. Coleman matchup is one of the most high profile Senate races in a year in which several Senate seats will be contested.

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Political Crumbs

The 40 Percent Floor

Although Republicans have won 23 of 39 Indiana gubernatorial races since the first time a GOP candidate was on the ballot in 1860, Democrats have suffered few blow-out defeats during this span. In fact, the Democratic nominee has eclipsed the 40 percent mark in all 39 contests. The Republicans cannot quite claim the same, falling below 40 percent just once with nominee Linley Pearson during the gubernatorial election of 1992 when Evan Byah won his second term. Democrats have a streak of 47 consecutive contests reaching the 40 percent mark - doing so every cycle since the party first fielded a candidate in the race for governor of 1834.


Curse of the '4'?

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


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