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Coleman Retains Small Lead Over Franken; Ventura Candidacy Looms

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Norm Coleman continues to lead Al Franken in his defense of his U.S. Senate seat, by 48 to 45 percent, according to a poll of 500 likely voters by Rasmussen. The poll, conducted on Wednesday, June 11th, finds no bounce for Franken coming out of last weekend's DFL convention, in which he won the party's endorsement on the first ballot.

Coleman has now polled ahead of Fraken in 15 of 17 surveys conducted by 5 different polling organizations since February 2007. Coleman has led by single digits in each of the last five such surveys since mid-March.

Rumors of an independent candidacy by Jesse Ventura continue to linger, and the Rasmussen survey finds Ventura polling much higher in this hypothetical U.S. Senate race, than he did at this point in 1998 when he was actively running for Governor of the Gopher State. In the new Rasmussen survey, the introduction of Ventura into the mix finds Coleman with a 39 to 32 percent lead over Franken, with Ventura polling at a substantial 24 percent.

As late as August 1998, Ventura was polling at just 13 percent in his run for Governor (Pioneer Press / MPR poll), so the former Governor would be starting his Senate run with a much longer running start than he had 10 years ago. The filing deadline for Ventura to launch his candidacy is in about a month (July 15th).

Still, Ventura has the highest negatives of any of the three principles: Coleman has a 45 percent unfavorable rating, Franken has a 50 percent unfavorable rating, and Ventura has a very high 62 percent unfavorable rating. Only 27 percent believe Ventura should make a run as an independent candidate.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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