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Déjà Vu: McCain-Obama Margin Same as Bush-Kerrry 4 Years Ago

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The political landscape has changed greatly during the past four years—increased opposition to the war in Iraq, greater Democratic party identification, greater support for generic Democratic candidates for the U.S. House, and a 20-point decrease in President George W. Bush's approval.

While all of these factors conspire to the benefit of the junior Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama has no greater lead over John McCain nationally than John Kerry had over President Bush four years ago.

In a Gallup poll conducted June 21-23, 2004, Kerry led Bush 46.4 percent to 43.8 percent with 3.6 percent supporting neither candidate.

In Gallup's latest tracking poll, conducted June 20-22, 2008, Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 43 percent, with 4 percent supporting neither candidate.

This cannot be good news for the Obama campaign—who did not experience anything resembling a sustained bounce after Hillary Clinton officially suspended her campaign a few weeks ago, making Obama the effective Democratic nominee. Despite American getting to know him during a half of a year of intense media coverage through his political battle with Clinton, Obama is still in a dead heat with a candidate many have labeled as being tied to an extremely unpopular President.

Previous post: Obama in Iowa and Minnesota: Standing Where Kerry Stood in 2004
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1 Comment


  • The ONLY hope the Democratic party has is an Obama/Clinton ticket in the fall.

    Or, in the FALL, the Democrats will FALL as they usually FALL!

    What we really need is a serious third party that people can get behind! What we have this year is a bad and worse decisions.

    Which candidate do you think will be worse.

    On one hand we have a horrible Liberal party line voter.

    On the other hand we have a party line bucking Liberal / Conservative / Liberal that seems to be a Bush clone.

    Are you sure we haven't allowed human cloning yet???

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

    The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

    Political Crumbs

    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    Home Field Advantage?

    When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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