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Déjà Vu: McCain-Obama Margin Same as Bush-Kerrry 4 Years Ago

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The political landscape has changed greatly during the past four years—increased opposition to the war in Iraq, greater Democratic party identification, greater support for generic Democratic candidates for the U.S. House, and a 20-point decrease in President George W. Bush's approval.

While all of these factors conspire to the benefit of the junior Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama has no greater lead over John McCain nationally than John Kerry had over President Bush four years ago.

In a Gallup poll conducted June 21-23, 2004, Kerry led Bush 46.4 percent to 43.8 percent with 3.6 percent supporting neither candidate.

In Gallup's latest tracking poll, conducted June 20-22, 2008, Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 43 percent, with 4 percent supporting neither candidate.

This cannot be good news for the Obama campaign—who did not experience anything resembling a sustained bounce after Hillary Clinton officially suspended her campaign a few weeks ago, making Obama the effective Democratic nominee. Despite American getting to know him during a half of a year of intense media coverage through his political battle with Clinton, Obama is still in a dead heat with a candidate many have labeled as being tied to an extremely unpopular President.

Previous post: Obama in Iowa and Minnesota: Standing Where Kerry Stood in 2004
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1 Comment


  • The ONLY hope the Democratic party has is an Obama/Clinton ticket in the fall.

    Or, in the FALL, the Democrats will FALL as they usually FALL!

    What we really need is a serious third party that people can get behind! What we have this year is a bad and worse decisions.

    Which candidate do you think will be worse.

    On one hand we have a horrible Liberal party line voter.

    On the other hand we have a party line bucking Liberal / Conservative / Liberal that seems to be a Bush clone.

    Are you sure we haven't allowed human cloning yet???

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

    Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

    Political Crumbs

    Evolving?

    When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


    73 Months and Counting

    January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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