Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Déjà Vu: McCain-Obama Margin Same as Bush-Kerrry 4 Years Ago

Bookmark and Share

The political landscape has changed greatly during the past four years—increased opposition to the war in Iraq, greater Democratic party identification, greater support for generic Democratic candidates for the U.S. House, and a 20-point decrease in President George W. Bush's approval.

While all of these factors conspire to the benefit of the junior Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama has no greater lead over John McCain nationally than John Kerry had over President Bush four years ago.

In a Gallup poll conducted June 21-23, 2004, Kerry led Bush 46.4 percent to 43.8 percent with 3.6 percent supporting neither candidate.

In Gallup's latest tracking poll, conducted June 20-22, 2008, Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 43 percent, with 4 percent supporting neither candidate.

This cannot be good news for the Obama campaign—who did not experience anything resembling a sustained bounce after Hillary Clinton officially suspended her campaign a few weeks ago, making Obama the effective Democratic nominee. Despite American getting to know him during a half of a year of intense media coverage through his political battle with Clinton, Obama is still in a dead heat with a candidate many have labeled as being tied to an extremely unpopular President.

Previous post: Obama in Iowa and Minnesota: Standing Where Kerry Stood in 2004
Next post: Why Is Obama Talking About Religion?

1 Comment


  • The ONLY hope the Democratic party has is an Obama/Clinton ticket in the fall.

    Or, in the FALL, the Democrats will FALL as they usually FALL!

    What we really need is a serious third party that people can get behind! What we have this year is a bad and worse decisions.

    Which candidate do you think will be worse.

    On one hand we have a horrible Liberal party line voter.

    On the other hand we have a party line bucking Liberal / Conservative / Liberal that seems to be a Bush clone.

    Are you sure we haven't allowed human cloning yet???

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Kevin McCarthy Becomes Least Tenured Floor Leader in US House History

    At less than four terms, McCarthy has served 423 fewer days in the chamber than any floor leader in U.S. House history and almost 10 years less than the average leader.

    Political Crumbs

    The Second Time Around

    Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


    How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

    Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting