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Live Blog: South Dakota Primary

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8:00 p.m. CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News have all called Barack Obama the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party, having culled together enough superdelegates today and enough votes (> 30 percent) in South Dakota.

8:06 p.m. (9% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

8:12 p.m. Fox News has called South Dakota for Hillary Clinton (as projected by Smart Politics months ago - in the face of near universal dissent among political pundits and media commentators). This is Clinton's 20th victory plus Michigan, Puerto Rico, and American Samoa.

8:15 p.m. (14% reporting)
Clinton = 55%
Obama = 45%

8:19 p.m. (17% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

8:21 p.m. (19% reporting)
Clinton = 57%
Obama = 43%

MSNBC has now called South Dakota for Clinton. Their liberal commentators were at first shocked and then dismissive - stating the Clinton's had campaigned "vigorously" there. There is no mention, naturally, that the network got this state wrong - dead wrong - for the past month.

8:24 p.m. Now CNN has called South Dakota for Clinton.

8:27 p.m. (22% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

8:37 p.m. (29% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

Clinton has now picked up approximately 4,000 votes so far.

8:38 p.m. In Clinton's speech to supporters, she is quick to mention she has won more votes than any other primary candidate in U.S. electoral history (math which, at this point, indicates she is including Michigan in the total).

8:45 p.m. With her victory in South Dakota, Clinton has now won states with 294 cumulative Electoral College votes, 31 percent more than the states Obama has carried (224 Electoral College votes).

8:53 p.m. (38% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

Clinton has now picked up approximately 5,000 votes on Obama thus far.

8:57 p.m. (41% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

9:09 p.m. (45% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

Clinton has picked up 6,200 votes so far in South Dakota, but Obama may win that back in Montana and then some.

9:23 p.m. (50% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

Clinton is currently on pace to pick up 13,000 votes in South Dakota.

9:34 p.m. (62% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

9:58 p.m. (73% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

11:28 p.m. (98% reporting)
Clinton = 55%
Obama = 45%

8:38 a.m. (100% reporting)
Clinton = 55%
Obama = 45%

While Clinton's victory in South Dakota came as a surprise to many, the only surprise at Smart Politics was that she won by just 10,453 votes. Although South Dakota officials were bracing for a record turnout, just 25.2 percent of the 2004 general election turnout voted in the Democratic primary - far short of the 40.2 percent in Montana. It is unclear if Hillary Clinton supporters (in both states) were discouraged from voting after false news reports spread over the media that Clinton would be conceding the nomination and dropping out of the race in her speech Tuesday night. That, of course, did not happen.

Previous post: South Dakota and Montana Preview; ARG Finds Clinton Up 26 Points in SD
Next post: Live Blog: Montana Primary

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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