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Live Blog: South Dakota Primary

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8:00 p.m. CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News have all called Barack Obama the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party, having culled together enough superdelegates today and enough votes (> 30 percent) in South Dakota.

8:06 p.m. (9% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

8:12 p.m. Fox News has called South Dakota for Hillary Clinton (as projected by Smart Politics months ago - in the face of near universal dissent among political pundits and media commentators). This is Clinton's 20th victory plus Michigan, Puerto Rico, and American Samoa.

8:15 p.m. (14% reporting)
Clinton = 55%
Obama = 45%

8:19 p.m. (17% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

8:21 p.m. (19% reporting)
Clinton = 57%
Obama = 43%

MSNBC has now called South Dakota for Clinton. Their liberal commentators were at first shocked and then dismissive - stating the Clinton's had campaigned "vigorously" there. There is no mention, naturally, that the network got this state wrong - dead wrong - for the past month.

8:24 p.m. Now CNN has called South Dakota for Clinton.

8:27 p.m. (22% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

8:37 p.m. (29% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

Clinton has now picked up approximately 4,000 votes so far.

8:38 p.m. In Clinton's speech to supporters, she is quick to mention she has won more votes than any other primary candidate in U.S. electoral history (math which, at this point, indicates she is including Michigan in the total).

8:45 p.m. With her victory in South Dakota, Clinton has now won states with 294 cumulative Electoral College votes, 31 percent more than the states Obama has carried (224 Electoral College votes).

8:53 p.m. (38% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

Clinton has now picked up approximately 5,000 votes on Obama thus far.

8:57 p.m. (41% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

9:09 p.m. (45% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

Clinton has picked up 6,200 votes so far in South Dakota, but Obama may win that back in Montana and then some.

9:23 p.m. (50% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

Clinton is currently on pace to pick up 13,000 votes in South Dakota.

9:34 p.m. (62% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

9:58 p.m. (73% reporting)
Clinton = 56%
Obama = 44%

11:28 p.m. (98% reporting)
Clinton = 55%
Obama = 45%

8:38 a.m. (100% reporting)
Clinton = 55%
Obama = 45%

While Clinton's victory in South Dakota came as a surprise to many, the only surprise at Smart Politics was that she won by just 10,453 votes. Although South Dakota officials were bracing for a record turnout, just 25.2 percent of the 2004 general election turnout voted in the Democratic primary - far short of the 40.2 percent in Montana. It is unclear if Hillary Clinton supporters (in both states) were discouraged from voting after false news reports spread over the media that Clinton would be conceding the nomination and dropping out of the race in her speech Tuesday night. That, of course, did not happen.

Previous post: South Dakota and Montana Preview; ARG Finds Clinton Up 26 Points in SD
Next post: Live Blog: Montana Primary

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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