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New SurveyUSA Poll: Obama and McCain in Dead Heat in Minnesota

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A new SurveyUSA poll of 543 likely voters in Minnesota finds the race for president much closer than the findings from recent polls conducted in the state.

In the SurveyUSA poll, John McCain is in a statistical tie with Barack Obama, trailing 47 to 46 percent, with 7 percent undecided. The poll was conducted over a four-day period, June 13-16. A survey by Rasmussen, conducted on a single day (June 11), found Obama with a significant 13-point lead, 52 to 39 percent. All things being equal, surveys conducted over more than one day are generally considered to be a more reliable gauge of the political temperature of the target sample.

Obama had led McCain by double-digits in 4 of the previous 7 public opinion surveys conducted since March 19th.

The 1-point deficit in the SurveyUSA poll is the closest McCain has polled against Obama in three months, when SurveyUSA had McCain with a statistically insignificant 47 to 46 percent advantage over Obama back in mid-March. Overall, Obama has led McCain in 13 of 17 matchup polls conducted since November 2007 and in 13 of 14 polls conducted since late January 2008.

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The 40 Percent Floor

Although Republicans have won 23 of 39 Indiana gubernatorial races since the first time a GOP candidate was on the ballot in 1860, Democrats have suffered few blow-out defeats during this span. In fact, the Democratic nominee has eclipsed the 40 percent mark in all 39 contests. The Republicans cannot quite claim the same, falling below 40 percent just once with nominee Linley Pearson during the gubernatorial election of 1992 when Evan Byah won his second term. Democrats have a streak of 47 consecutive contests reaching the 40 percent mark - doing so every cycle since the party first fielded a candidate in the race for governor of 1834.


Curse of the '4'?

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


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