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New SurveyUSA Poll: Obama and McCain in Dead Heat in Minnesota

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A new SurveyUSA poll of 543 likely voters in Minnesota finds the race for president much closer than the findings from recent polls conducted in the state.

In the SurveyUSA poll, John McCain is in a statistical tie with Barack Obama, trailing 47 to 46 percent, with 7 percent undecided. The poll was conducted over a four-day period, June 13-16. A survey by Rasmussen, conducted on a single day (June 11), found Obama with a significant 13-point lead, 52 to 39 percent. All things being equal, surveys conducted over more than one day are generally considered to be a more reliable gauge of the political temperature of the target sample.

Obama had led McCain by double-digits in 4 of the previous 7 public opinion surveys conducted since March 19th.

The 1-point deficit in the SurveyUSA poll is the closest McCain has polled against Obama in three months, when SurveyUSA had McCain with a statistically insignificant 47 to 46 percent advantage over Obama back in mid-March. Overall, Obama has led McCain in 13 of 17 matchup polls conducted since November 2007 and in 13 of 14 polls conducted since late January 2008.

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Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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