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New SurveyUSA Poll: Obama and McCain in Dead Heat in Minnesota

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A new SurveyUSA poll of 543 likely voters in Minnesota finds the race for president much closer than the findings from recent polls conducted in the state.

In the SurveyUSA poll, John McCain is in a statistical tie with Barack Obama, trailing 47 to 46 percent, with 7 percent undecided. The poll was conducted over a four-day period, June 13-16. A survey by Rasmussen, conducted on a single day (June 11), found Obama with a significant 13-point lead, 52 to 39 percent. All things being equal, surveys conducted over more than one day are generally considered to be a more reliable gauge of the political temperature of the target sample.

Obama had led McCain by double-digits in 4 of the previous 7 public opinion surveys conducted since March 19th.

The 1-point deficit in the SurveyUSA poll is the closest McCain has polled against Obama in three months, when SurveyUSA had McCain with a statistically insignificant 47 to 46 percent advantage over Obama back in mid-March. Overall, Obama has led McCain in 13 of 17 matchup polls conducted since November 2007 and in 13 of 14 polls conducted since late January 2008.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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