Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Obama in Iowa and Minnesota: Standing Where Kerry Stood in 2004

Bookmark and Share

Barack Obama has enjoyed not only a lead over John McCain in all but one of more than 25 national polls conducted since early May 2008, but also a consistent advantage in early polling in two key Upper Midwestern battleground states: Iowa and Minnesota.

However, Obama's lead in these states—which total 17 Electoral College votes—is quite similar to where 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry stood four years ago vis-à-vis George W. Bush.

In Minnesota, the latest poll of likely voters by SurveyUSA (June 13-16) gives Obama a statistically insignificant 1-point lead over McCain, 47 to 46 percent. Back in late June 2004, a Humphrey Institute survey of likely voters similarly found Kerry with a 1-point lead, 45 to 44 percent over Bush. Kerry went on to win the Gopher State by less than 4 points.

In Iowa, the latest SurveyUSA poll (June 13-16) finds Obama up 4 points over McCain, 49 to 45 percent. Back in June 2004, a Humphrey Survey measured Kerry's lead over Bush at 6 points, 50 to 44 percent.

Kerry had consistently outperformed Bush in Iowa in the polls from February through August 2004—leading in all 10 surveys conducted during that span by Rasmussen, CNN, the Humphrey Institute, SurveyUSA, and KCCI-TV / Research 2000. Kerry then lost his lead after the Republican National Convetion and went on to lose to Bush by less than 1 percentage point.

Previous post:
Next post: Déjà Vu: McCain-Obama Margin Same as Bush-Kerrry 4 Years Ago

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting