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Obama in Iowa and Minnesota: Standing Where Kerry Stood in 2004

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Barack Obama has enjoyed not only a lead over John McCain in all but one of more than 25 national polls conducted since early May 2008, but also a consistent advantage in early polling in two key Upper Midwestern battleground states: Iowa and Minnesota.

However, Obama's lead in these states—which total 17 Electoral College votes—is quite similar to where 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry stood four years ago vis-à-vis George W. Bush.

In Minnesota, the latest poll of likely voters by SurveyUSA (June 13-16) gives Obama a statistically insignificant 1-point lead over McCain, 47 to 46 percent. Back in late June 2004, a Humphrey Institute survey of likely voters similarly found Kerry with a 1-point lead, 45 to 44 percent over Bush. Kerry went on to win the Gopher State by less than 4 points.

In Iowa, the latest SurveyUSA poll (June 13-16) finds Obama up 4 points over McCain, 49 to 45 percent. Back in June 2004, a Humphrey Survey measured Kerry's lead over Bush at 6 points, 50 to 44 percent.

Kerry had consistently outperformed Bush in Iowa in the polls from February through August 2004—leading in all 10 surveys conducted during that span by Rasmussen, CNN, the Humphrey Institute, SurveyUSA, and KCCI-TV / Research 2000. Kerry then lost his lead after the Republican National Convetion and went on to lose to Bush by less than 1 percentage point.

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Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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