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Obama Leads McCain in Iowa in 18th Consecutive Poll

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Barack Obama is leading John McCain in the important battleground state of Iowa for the 18th consecutive matchup poll, dating back to December 2006. The new poll, conducted June 10th of 500 likely voters by Rasmussen, gives Obama a 45 to 38 percent advantage, with 7 percent supporting some other candidate and 9 percent undecided.

Obama has led McCain in 18 of 18 polls conducted across four different survey organizations for the past year and a half. McCain has polled within five points just five times, and has trailed by double digits five times as well.

The Rasmussen poll does show some concerns for Obama: while the candidates' overall favorability ratings are similar (59 percent for McCain, 58 percent for Obama), a larger percentage of Iowans have a very unfavorable view of the Senator from Illinois (25 percent) than the Senator from Arizona (16 percent).

Of greater concern to Obama, 41 percent of Iowans believe he is too inexperienced to become president. A large portion of that voting block are Republicans voting for McCain, to be sure, but other skeptics are doubtless independents and some Democrats among the 1 in 6 surveyed (16 percent) who did not express a preference for either candidate.

The Hawkeye State had voted Democratic in presidential elections for four straight cycles until 2004, when George W. Bush carried the state by approximately 10,000 votes. Before 1988, Republicans had carried the state in 8 of the previous 9 presidential elections.

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Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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