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Obama Leads McCain in Iowa in 18th Consecutive Poll

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Barack Obama is leading John McCain in the important battleground state of Iowa for the 18th consecutive matchup poll, dating back to December 2006. The new poll, conducted June 10th of 500 likely voters by Rasmussen, gives Obama a 45 to 38 percent advantage, with 7 percent supporting some other candidate and 9 percent undecided.

Obama has led McCain in 18 of 18 polls conducted across four different survey organizations for the past year and a half. McCain has polled within five points just five times, and has trailed by double digits five times as well.

The Rasmussen poll does show some concerns for Obama: while the candidates' overall favorability ratings are similar (59 percent for McCain, 58 percent for Obama), a larger percentage of Iowans have a very unfavorable view of the Senator from Illinois (25 percent) than the Senator from Arizona (16 percent).

Of greater concern to Obama, 41 percent of Iowans believe he is too inexperienced to become president. A large portion of that voting block are Republicans voting for McCain, to be sure, but other skeptics are doubtless independents and some Democrats among the 1 in 6 surveyed (16 percent) who did not express a preference for either candidate.

The Hawkeye State had voted Democratic in presidential elections for four straight cycles until 2004, when George W. Bush carried the state by approximately 10,000 votes. Before 1988, Republicans had carried the state in 8 of the previous 9 presidential elections.

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Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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