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Obama Leads McCain in Iowa in 18th Consecutive Poll

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Barack Obama is leading John McCain in the important battleground state of Iowa for the 18th consecutive matchup poll, dating back to December 2006. The new poll, conducted June 10th of 500 likely voters by Rasmussen, gives Obama a 45 to 38 percent advantage, with 7 percent supporting some other candidate and 9 percent undecided.

Obama has led McCain in 18 of 18 polls conducted across four different survey organizations for the past year and a half. McCain has polled within five points just five times, and has trailed by double digits five times as well.

The Rasmussen poll does show some concerns for Obama: while the candidates' overall favorability ratings are similar (59 percent for McCain, 58 percent for Obama), a larger percentage of Iowans have a very unfavorable view of the Senator from Illinois (25 percent) than the Senator from Arizona (16 percent).

Of greater concern to Obama, 41 percent of Iowans believe he is too inexperienced to become president. A large portion of that voting block are Republicans voting for McCain, to be sure, but other skeptics are doubtless independents and some Democrats among the 1 in 6 surveyed (16 percent) who did not express a preference for either candidate.

The Hawkeye State had voted Democratic in presidential elections for four straight cycles until 2004, when George W. Bush carried the state by approximately 10,000 votes. Before 1988, Republicans had carried the state in 8 of the previous 9 presidential elections.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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