Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Obama vs. McCain: Five Months Out

Bookmark and Share

Although Election Day is nearly five months away, the vast number of state polling conducted in recent weeks makes it difficult to resist assessing the current lay of the land in the general campaign matchup between Barack Obama and John McCain as it stands today.

Nonpartisan polling organizations have conducted head-to-head matchup surveys of likely or registered voters in 34 states during the past month. This includes 18 battleground states, 4 traditionally 'safe' Democratic states, and 13 traditionally 'safe' Republican states.

Obama is currently winning the battle for the battlegrounds, leading McCain in 10 of these matchups (Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin). Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia would be considered 'pick-ups' as each of those states voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. Obama leads by double digits in Maine (13 points), Oregon (10 points), and Washington (16 points).

McCain leads Obama in 5 states (Florida, Michigan, Louisiana, Nevada, and West Virginia). Only Michigan would be considered a true 'pick-up' for the GOP, as the Wolverine State voted Democratic for the last four presidential election cycles. McCain does not lead Obama by double digits in any of these states.

Pollsters measure the races in another 3 states as statistical ties: Missouri, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania.

Obama is currently winning 3 of the 4 'safe' Democratic states surveyed during the past month by wide margins: California by 17 points, Massachusetts by 13 points, and New York by 19 points. However, a late May Rasmussen poll of likely voters in Connecuticut staked Obama to just a 47 to 44 percent lead, within the poll's margin of error. Remember, McCain not only won the 2008 GOP primary in Connecticut, but also back in 2000—one of his few victories over George W. Bush during his first presidential campaign.

McCain is leading Obama in all 13 'safe' Republican states surveyed during the past month, including 9 states by double-digits: Alabama (28 points), Arkansas (24 points), Arizona (11 points), Georgia (14 points), Kentucky (24 points), Kansas (10 points), Nebraska (28 points), Utah (35 points), and Wyoming (13 points). Pollsters measure McCain's advantage more narrowly in Alaska (7 points), Mississippi (6 points), Montana (8 points), and North Carolina (8 points).

If the election were held today it would appear Obama has a modest advantage, although, in an election year considered by most pundits as "the Democrat's to lose," McCain is sitting in a fairly strong position.

Previous post: Smart Politics Interviews Minnesota Monitor
Next post: Al Franken Wins DFL Endorsement for U.S. Senate

1 Comment


  • "If the election were held today it would appear Obama has a modest advantage, although, in an election year considered by most pundits as "the Democrat's to lose," McCain is sitting in a fairly strong position."

    Yes, but Obama hasn't been the nominee for a week after a grueling primary contest. Now that the Democratic spotlight can be solely placed on Sen. Obama, I believe he will begin to gain even further support nationally. Furthermore, the country doesn't really know John McCain as he has laid low so far. Put the charismatic, energetic, Obama side by side with the dry, ill-tempered, McCain in a debate or town hall meeting and it will seal the deal for the Democrats in November.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Kevin McCarthy Becomes Least Tenured Floor Leader in US House History

    At less than four terms, McCarthy has served 423 fewer days in the chamber than any floor leader in U.S. House history and almost 10 years less than the average leader.

    Political Crumbs

    The Second Time Around

    Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


    How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

    Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting