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Poll: Wisconsin Presidential Matchup Remains Deadlocked

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A new Rasmussen survey conducted June 5th of 500 likely voters in the Badger State finds Barack Obama leading John McCain 45 to 43 percent—within the poll's margin of error. Six percent would support some other candidate and six percent were undecided.

The new poll continues a 3-month trend with neither candidate able to pull away from the other in Wisconsin—a classic battleground state in presidential elections. In 8 public polls conducted by 4 different polling organizations since mid-March, neither Obama nor McCain has mustered an advantage of larger than 6 points.

Overall, however, Obama seems to have maintained a slight advantage in Wisconsin: Obama has polled ahead of McCain in 10 of 14 public polls dating back to November 2007, and McCain has not held a lead of greater than 4 points in any poll. But Obama's double-digit leads measured in two polls of registered voters by SurveyUSA in February 2008 have largely evaporated back to a dead heat matchup with McCain.

McCain's competitive campaign in Wisconsin thus far is particularly impressive considering the negative views held by Badger State residents towards President George W. Bush. In the new Rasmussen survey, Bush's disapproval rating is 68 percent, with only 31 percent approving of his job performance.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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