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Poll: Wisconsin Presidential Matchup Remains Deadlocked

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A new Rasmussen survey conducted June 5th of 500 likely voters in the Badger State finds Barack Obama leading John McCain 45 to 43 percent—within the poll's margin of error. Six percent would support some other candidate and six percent were undecided.

The new poll continues a 3-month trend with neither candidate able to pull away from the other in Wisconsin—a classic battleground state in presidential elections. In 8 public polls conducted by 4 different polling organizations since mid-March, neither Obama nor McCain has mustered an advantage of larger than 6 points.

Overall, however, Obama seems to have maintained a slight advantage in Wisconsin: Obama has polled ahead of McCain in 10 of 14 public polls dating back to November 2007, and McCain has not held a lead of greater than 4 points in any poll. But Obama's double-digit leads measured in two polls of registered voters by SurveyUSA in February 2008 have largely evaporated back to a dead heat matchup with McCain.

McCain's competitive campaign in Wisconsin thus far is particularly impressive considering the negative views held by Badger State residents towards President George W. Bush. In the new Rasmussen survey, Bush's disapproval rating is 68 percent, with only 31 percent approving of his job performance.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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