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Poll: Wisconsin Presidential Matchup Remains Deadlocked

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A new Rasmussen survey conducted June 5th of 500 likely voters in the Badger State finds Barack Obama leading John McCain 45 to 43 percent—within the poll's margin of error. Six percent would support some other candidate and six percent were undecided.

The new poll continues a 3-month trend with neither candidate able to pull away from the other in Wisconsin—a classic battleground state in presidential elections. In 8 public polls conducted by 4 different polling organizations since mid-March, neither Obama nor McCain has mustered an advantage of larger than 6 points.

Overall, however, Obama seems to have maintained a slight advantage in Wisconsin: Obama has polled ahead of McCain in 10 of 14 public polls dating back to November 2007, and McCain has not held a lead of greater than 4 points in any poll. But Obama's double-digit leads measured in two polls of registered voters by SurveyUSA in February 2008 have largely evaporated back to a dead heat matchup with McCain.

McCain's competitive campaign in Wisconsin thus far is particularly impressive considering the negative views held by Badger State residents towards President George W. Bush. In the new Rasmussen survey, Bush's disapproval rating is 68 percent, with only 31 percent approving of his job performance.

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Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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