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The Race Issue In Wisconsin

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The University of Wisconsin's latest Badger Poll (conducted June 8-10 of 506 likely voters) provides an illuminating snapshot about its residents' views on race in America—or at least what they are willing to tell a pollster in a telephone interview.

The poll revealed, firstly, that the Badger State is currently leaning to Barack Obama in its vote for president, with 50 percent expressing their preference for the (African American) Senator from Illinois, and just 37 percent for (white) Senator from Arizona, John McCain.

Obama also bested McCain on a series of questions on candidate traits:

  • 74 percent of Wisconsinites believe Obama cares people about them, compared to 55 percent for McCain.
  • 63 percent believe Obama shares their values, compared to just 46 percent for McCain.
  • 70 percent believe Obama can bring about change, compared to 42 percent for McCain.

Obama also had a much higher favorability rating (64 percent) than McCain (53 percent).

From these polling questions—not dealing with race specifically, but evaluating a minority candidate against a white candidate—Badger State residents demonstrate with apparent conviction that they are ready and willing to support a black candidate for the White House. As a result, it would also appear Obama has so far put enough distance between himself, his old church, and the Pastor Jeremiah Wright controversy that nearly derailed his race for the nomination during the past three months.

The interview then asked questions dealing directly with race, and African Americans in particular. On almost all of these questions, the vast majority of Wisconsinites expressed what could be characterized as the 'politically correct' answer (whether or not correctly expressing their true views). For example:

  • By a margin of more than 3:1 (74 percent to 23 percent) Wisconsinites disagreed with the statement that America has gone too far in giving African Americans special legal rights.
  • By a margin fo 5:1 (80 percent to 16 percent), Badger State residents disagreed with the statement that African Americans tended to have less ambition.
  • By a margin of 24:1 (94 percent to 4 percent), Wisconsinites believed African Americans work hard when given a chance.

However, the poll asked one final question on race, which indirectly touches on what bothered so many Americans about the Pastor Wright controversy (and Obama's delayed reaction to it). When asked if African Americans often use race as an excuse to justify wrongdoing, Wisconsin was evenly split: 48 percent believed this was the case and 49 percent disagreed.

While the statements delivered during Pastor Wright's various sermons were offensive to most Americans, many (though not all) African American leaders, activists, and commentators reacted to the issue, and defended Obama, by dealing this 'excuse card.' White America's anger to Pastor Wright's comments were attributed by several of these leaders as a result of its "not understanding black churches." In other words, an excuse was offered for bad behavior—both Wright's anti-American comments and Obama's failure to censure those comments in a timely manner—through a racial prism.

Even assuming Wisconsinites were truthful in their reply to all other questions in the Badger poll on Obama and race, it is therefore not clear that Obama has completely put the Wright controversy (and thus the race issue) to bed. The question is if and how McCain and his surrogates will attempt to raise this issue during the general election campaign.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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