Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


CSPG Report: The Third Party Impact in 2008

Bookmark and Share

The Center for the Study of Politics and Governance has released a report studying the potential impact third parties may have on the 2008 presidential race. From the report:

"Third parties may determine the outcome of the 2008 presidential contest between the presumptive Democratic and Republican Party candidates, Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain. Careful review of recent presidential and statewide elections reveals two central findings that may provide the key to the 2008 presidential race:

· Third party candidates have enjoyed persistent success in gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections since the 1990s. These results may be leading indicators of voter inclination to vote for a third party presidential candidate.

· Third party candidates may impact the Obama-McCain contest by shaping the debate and, more dramatically, by playing King Maker by capitalizing on third party successes in as many as 28 state-wide races in 2006.

The report, co-authored by Center Director Larry Jacobs and Smart Politics' Eric Ostermeier, examines how third parties played King Maker in 17 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races from 1998 through 2006 (a third party is 'King Maker' when it receives more votes than the margin of victory and the losing major party was ideologically related to the King Maker (e.g. Libertarian/Republican; Green/Democrat)).

The report details that while Democrats fear the "Nader effect" from 2000, Libertarians have denied numerous GOP victories in statewide races over the years (e.g. Maria Cantwell's 2000 U.S. Senate victory in Washington, Jon Tester's 2006 Senate victory in Montana). From the report:

In the 2002 South Dakota U.S. Senate election, the 3,070 votes for Libertarian candidate Kurt Evans were enough to upend Republican John Thune’s effort to beat Democrat Tim Johnson. When it became apparent that Evans might tip the race to Johnson, the Libertarian actually dropped out of the race in mid-October 2002 and endorsed Thune, stating, “I’ve suspended my campaign and endorsed John Thune in the race for the U.S. Senate. I’ve always had more agreements than disagreements with Congressman Thune on the issues.? Nonetheless, Johnson prevailed thanks to lingering statewide support for Evans.

The attention to Libertarian presidential nominee Bob Barr has increased in recent weeks after two surveys by InsiderAdvantage found him polling at 6 and 4 percent in his home (deep red) state of Georgia, causing McCain's lead to fall within the poll's margin of error.

The full report can be found here: http://politicsandgovernance.org/reports/2008/Third_Party_Impact.pdf

Previous post: Democrats in Best Position to Take Control of SD Senate Since 1992
Next post: Obama Making Inroads in Deep Red States, Lagging in Reddish-Purple States

1 Comment


  • It seems to me that Libertarian party has been created as a shadow of one of the leading party. On one hand this kind of party shold exist to show that there are not only leaders n politics. But on the other hand it makes the leader stronger when it is nacessary. Anyway it's very diificult to say where the truth is in politics.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

    Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

    Political Crumbs

    Six for Thirteen

    Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting