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Obama Maintains Double-Digit Lead in Wisconsin

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A new Rasmussen survey of 500 likely voters in Wisconsin finds Barack Obama maintaining a substantial lead over John McCain. The Rasmussen poll measures Obama’s advantage over McCain at 11 points – 50 to 39 percent.

These results are in line with the three previous Wisconsin surveys conducted during the past month that measured Obama’s lead at 13 points (Quinnipiac, June 17-24), 9 points (SurveyUSA, June 13-16), and 13 points (Badger Poll, June 8-10). Obama has now led McCain in 6 straight polls dating back to mid-May and 12 of 15 polls since January 2008.

Despite the double-digit deficit and ominous political environment for the Senator from Arizona, there was some good news for McCain coming out of the Rasmussen survey: McCain boasts a favorability rating of 57 percent – approximately 5 points higher than George W. Bush in his re-election campaign in late June 2004 (Badger Poll). The problem for McCain is that Obama is seen in even a more favorable light – 61 percent – and noticeably more than 2004 Badger State victor John Kerry from four years ago (48 percent, Los Angeles Times poll).

What this means is that McCain is liked well enough by Wisconsin voters to put him in a competitive position, especially in the face of a misstep by Obama. McCain is campaigning in Wisconsin today – his third general election visit to the Badger State.

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Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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