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Obama Maintains Double-Digit Lead in Wisconsin

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A new Rasmussen survey of 500 likely voters in Wisconsin finds Barack Obama maintaining a substantial lead over John McCain. The Rasmussen poll measures Obama’s advantage over McCain at 11 points – 50 to 39 percent.

These results are in line with the three previous Wisconsin surveys conducted during the past month that measured Obama’s lead at 13 points (Quinnipiac, June 17-24), 9 points (SurveyUSA, June 13-16), and 13 points (Badger Poll, June 8-10). Obama has now led McCain in 6 straight polls dating back to mid-May and 12 of 15 polls since January 2008.

Despite the double-digit deficit and ominous political environment for the Senator from Arizona, there was some good news for McCain coming out of the Rasmussen survey: McCain boasts a favorability rating of 57 percent – approximately 5 points higher than George W. Bush in his re-election campaign in late June 2004 (Badger Poll). The problem for McCain is that Obama is seen in even a more favorable light – 61 percent – and noticeably more than 2004 Badger State victor John Kerry from four years ago (48 percent, Los Angeles Times poll).

What this means is that McCain is liked well enough by Wisconsin voters to put him in a competitive position, especially in the face of a misstep by Obama. McCain is campaigning in Wisconsin today – his third general election visit to the Badger State.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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