Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Obama Maintains Double-Digit Lead in Wisconsin

Bookmark and Share

A new Rasmussen survey of 500 likely voters in Wisconsin finds Barack Obama maintaining a substantial lead over John McCain. The Rasmussen poll measures Obama’s advantage over McCain at 11 points – 50 to 39 percent.

These results are in line with the three previous Wisconsin surveys conducted during the past month that measured Obama’s lead at 13 points (Quinnipiac, June 17-24), 9 points (SurveyUSA, June 13-16), and 13 points (Badger Poll, June 8-10). Obama has now led McCain in 6 straight polls dating back to mid-May and 12 of 15 polls since January 2008.

Despite the double-digit deficit and ominous political environment for the Senator from Arizona, there was some good news for McCain coming out of the Rasmussen survey: McCain boasts a favorability rating of 57 percent – approximately 5 points higher than George W. Bush in his re-election campaign in late June 2004 (Badger Poll). The problem for McCain is that Obama is seen in even a more favorable light – 61 percent – and noticeably more than 2004 Badger State victor John Kerry from four years ago (48 percent, Los Angeles Times poll).

What this means is that McCain is liked well enough by Wisconsin voters to put him in a competitive position, especially in the face of a misstep by Obama. McCain is campaigning in Wisconsin today – his third general election visit to the Badger State.

Previous post: Ralph Nader and The Matrix Trilogy
Next post: Wisconsin Assembly Poised to Flip to Democratic Control

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Kevin McCarthy Becomes Least Tenured Floor Leader in US House History

At less than four terms, McCarthy has served 423 fewer days in the chamber than any floor leader in U.S. House history and almost 10 years less than the average leader.

Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting