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Obama Maintains Double-Digit Lead in Wisconsin

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A new Rasmussen survey of 500 likely voters in Wisconsin finds Barack Obama maintaining a substantial lead over John McCain. The Rasmussen poll measures Obama’s advantage over McCain at 11 points – 50 to 39 percent.

These results are in line with the three previous Wisconsin surveys conducted during the past month that measured Obama’s lead at 13 points (Quinnipiac, June 17-24), 9 points (SurveyUSA, June 13-16), and 13 points (Badger Poll, June 8-10). Obama has now led McCain in 6 straight polls dating back to mid-May and 12 of 15 polls since January 2008.

Despite the double-digit deficit and ominous political environment for the Senator from Arizona, there was some good news for McCain coming out of the Rasmussen survey: McCain boasts a favorability rating of 57 percent – approximately 5 points higher than George W. Bush in his re-election campaign in late June 2004 (Badger Poll). The problem for McCain is that Obama is seen in even a more favorable light – 61 percent – and noticeably more than 2004 Badger State victor John Kerry from four years ago (48 percent, Los Angeles Times poll).

What this means is that McCain is liked well enough by Wisconsin voters to put him in a competitive position, especially in the face of a misstep by Obama. McCain is campaigning in Wisconsin today – his third general election visit to the Badger State.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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