Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Rasmussen Poll: Obama Up Big in MN, IA, Competitive in the Dakotas

Bookmark and Share

Barack Obama is looking to become the first Democratic candidate to sweep the Upper Midwest since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. New polling by Rasmussen indicates Obama is currently competitive enough in the Dakotas to have a chance at doing just that.

In South Dakota, a survey of 500 likely voters conducted on July 9th finds John McCain with a 44 to 40 percent lead, with 7 percent supporting a third party candidate and 9 percent uncertain. South Dakota has only voted Democratic one time in a presidential race since 1940 (for LBJ in ’64) and just three times since Statehood (also voting for FDR in 1932 and 1936). An Obama win in South Dakota would therefore assure that John McCain lost the White House in a landslide election.

A poll of 500 likely North Dakota voters released last week by Rasmussen found McCain and Obama deadlocked in a 43 to 43 percent tie.

In Minnesota, Rasmussen’s poll of 500 likely voters on July 10th measures Obama’s lead at 17 points – 52 to 35 percent – the same margin yielded by Quinnipiac’s late June survey. Obama has polled ahead of McCain by double digits in six of the last eight matchup polls in the Gopher State.

According to a July 10th Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters in Iowa, Obama leads McCain by 10 points – 51 to 41 percent. Obama has led McCain in all public polling conducted this year, but his advantage had not risen to double-digits since mid-February until this new survey.

Rasmussen’s July 8th poll in Wisconsin also found Obama up by double-digits: 50 to 39 percent. As discussed at Smart Politics on June 30th, Wisconsin and Iowa have voted together in 35 of 40 presidential elections since 1848.

George W. Bush is giving Obama an early Christmas present with low approval ratings across all five states: 37 percent in North Dakota, 34 percent in Wisconsin, 33 percent in South Dakota, 29 percent in Iowa, and a record 24 percent in Minnesota.

Previous post: Wisconsin Assembly Poised to Flip to Democratic Control
Next post: MN Senate: Ventura Out, Barkley In, Coleman & Franken Split in Two New Polls

1 Comment


  • Eric:

    I saw your website on the reunion homepage, and I didn't know how else to contact you. I just wanted to say "hey" and let you know it's good to hear that you seem to be doing well.

    Take care.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

    Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

    Political Crumbs

    Evolving?

    When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


    73 Months and Counting

    January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting