Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Rasmussen Poll: Obama Up Big in MN, IA, Competitive in the Dakotas

Bookmark and Share

Barack Obama is looking to become the first Democratic candidate to sweep the Upper Midwest since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. New polling by Rasmussen indicates Obama is currently competitive enough in the Dakotas to have a chance at doing just that.

In South Dakota, a survey of 500 likely voters conducted on July 9th finds John McCain with a 44 to 40 percent lead, with 7 percent supporting a third party candidate and 9 percent uncertain. South Dakota has only voted Democratic one time in a presidential race since 1940 (for LBJ in ’64) and just three times since Statehood (also voting for FDR in 1932 and 1936). An Obama win in South Dakota would therefore assure that John McCain lost the White House in a landslide election.

A poll of 500 likely North Dakota voters released last week by Rasmussen found McCain and Obama deadlocked in a 43 to 43 percent tie.

In Minnesota, Rasmussen’s poll of 500 likely voters on July 10th measures Obama’s lead at 17 points – 52 to 35 percent – the same margin yielded by Quinnipiac’s late June survey. Obama has polled ahead of McCain by double digits in six of the last eight matchup polls in the Gopher State.

According to a July 10th Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters in Iowa, Obama leads McCain by 10 points – 51 to 41 percent. Obama has led McCain in all public polling conducted this year, but his advantage had not risen to double-digits since mid-February until this new survey.

Rasmussen’s July 8th poll in Wisconsin also found Obama up by double-digits: 50 to 39 percent. As discussed at Smart Politics on June 30th, Wisconsin and Iowa have voted together in 35 of 40 presidential elections since 1848.

George W. Bush is giving Obama an early Christmas present with low approval ratings across all five states: 37 percent in North Dakota, 34 percent in Wisconsin, 33 percent in South Dakota, 29 percent in Iowa, and a record 24 percent in Minnesota.

Previous post: Wisconsin Assembly Poised to Flip to Democratic Control
Next post: MN Senate: Ventura Out, Barkley In, Coleman & Franken Split in Two New Polls

1 Comment


  • Eric:

    I saw your website on the reunion homepage, and I didn't know how else to contact you. I just wanted to say "hey" and let you know it's good to hear that you seem to be doing well.

    Take care.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Which States Have the Longest and Shortest Election Day Voting Hours?

    Residents in some North Dakota towns have less than half as many hours to cast their ballots as those in New York State.

    Political Crumbs

    Mary Burke: English First?

    While multiculturalism and bilingualism are increasingly en vogue in some quarters as the world seemingly becomes a smaller place, one very high profile 2014 Democratic candidate does not shy away from the fact that she only speaks one language: English. In an attempt to highlight her private sector credentials working for Trek Bicycle, Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mary Burke boasts on her campaign bio page how she made great strides in international business dealings...while only speaking English: "Despite not speaking a single foreign language, she established sales and distribution operations in seven countries over just three years." Note: According to 2010 Census data, nearly half a million Wisconsinites over five years old speak a language other than English at home, or 8.7 percent, while 4.6 percent of Badger State residents do not speak English at all.


    Does My Key Still Work?

    Much has been made about Charlie Crist's political transformation from Republican to independent to Democrat en route to winning the Florida GOP and Democratic gubernatorial nominations over a span of eight years. Party-switching aside, Crist is also vying to become just the second Florida governor to serve two interrupted terms. Democrat William Bloxham was the first - serving four year terms from 1881 to 1885 and then 1897 to 1901. Florida did not permit governors serving consecutive terms for most of its 123 years prior to changes made in its 1968 constitution. Since then four have done so: Democrats Reubin Askew, Bob Graham, and Lawton Chiles and Republican Jeb Bush.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting