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Ted Stevens Indictment Boosts Odds of 1st Democratic Senate Victory in Alaska Since 1974

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Today's indictment of Alaska Republican Senator Ted Stevens on seven felony counts of concealing gifts from lobbyists makes one of the Democratic Party's prime U.S. Senate targets that much closer to a pick-up in November.

Stevens surprised many by announcing he would run for a 7th term, despite an ongoing Federal probe and rumors of a possible indictment for more than a year. The indictment makes his likely Democratic opponent, Mark Begich, a rare statewide favorite to win a Federal election in the state.

Democrats have only won 1 of the last 13 U.S. Senate races, dating back to 1970. The average Republican margin of victory has been 34 points during that span. In fact, in Stevens' last two victories, in 1996 and 2002, Democrats failed to win 11 percent of the vote - receiving less than the combined total of third party candidates in both years (and losing outright to the Green Party in 1996).

However, Democrats came very close to winning Alaska's last Senate race - in 2004 - when former Governor Tony Knowles lost by just 3 points (Republicans were plagued in that race as well, but only by charges of nepotism: Governor Frank Murkowski had appointed his daughter, Lisa, to his own unexpired U.S. Senate seat in 2002, which he vacated to become Governor).

Stevens won his first full term in a special election in 1970, and has not won less than 66 percent of the vote in his six re-election bids since. Begich led Stevens in the most recent public opinion poll - 50 to 41 percent (Rasmussen, July 17th, 500 likely voters).

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Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

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73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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