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HHH/MPR Survey: Obama Up By 10 in Minnesota

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A new poll by the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute and Minnesota Public Radio was released today indicating Barack Obama still has the advantage over John McCain in the Gopher State.

The poll, conducted over an 11-day period ending August 17th of 763 likely voters, finds Obama leading McCain 48 to 38 percent, with Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr earning 3 percent and 1 percent respectively.

The HHH / MPR poll is the first released in a month to find Obama’s lead in double-digits in the Gopher State. McCain has not led Obama in any poll of Minnesotans since a mid-March poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

The poll internals suggest Obama is benefiting from a 14-point net gender gap, with female voters supporting the Illinois Senator by a 52 to 36 percent margin.

To read the full 10-page report on the presidential race in Minnesota, please visit the Humphrey Institute’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance website.

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2 Comments


  • I assume that polling only engages persons who have land- lines. That being the case, I'd also assume that younger potential voters are under-represented in your poll and in other like polls because a larger percentage of them only have cell phones. This issue isn't discussed in the report. Is it considered?

  • In general, commercial and academic pollsters have found the cell phone issue to not be a problem when conducting their random sample surveys. The Pew Research Center posted a report on this a year ago:

    http://pewresearch.org/pubs/515/polling-cell-only-problem

    The study concludes: "Thus, although cell-only respondents are different from landline respondents in important ways, they were neither numerous enough nor different enough on the questions we examined to produce a significant change in overall general population survey estimates when included with the landline samples and weighted according to U.S.
    Census parameters on basic demographic characteristics."

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

    Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

    Political Crumbs

    Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

    Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


    An Idaho Six Pack

    Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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