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HHH/MPR Survey: Obama Up By 10 in Minnesota

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A new poll by the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute and Minnesota Public Radio was released today indicating Barack Obama still has the advantage over John McCain in the Gopher State.

The poll, conducted over an 11-day period ending August 17th of 763 likely voters, finds Obama leading McCain 48 to 38 percent, with Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr earning 3 percent and 1 percent respectively.

The HHH / MPR poll is the first released in a month to find Obama’s lead in double-digits in the Gopher State. McCain has not led Obama in any poll of Minnesotans since a mid-March poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

The poll internals suggest Obama is benefiting from a 14-point net gender gap, with female voters supporting the Illinois Senator by a 52 to 36 percent margin.

To read the full 10-page report on the presidential race in Minnesota, please visit the Humphrey Institute’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance website.

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2 Comments


  • I assume that polling only engages persons who have land- lines. That being the case, I'd also assume that younger potential voters are under-represented in your poll and in other like polls because a larger percentage of them only have cell phones. This issue isn't discussed in the report. Is it considered?

  • In general, commercial and academic pollsters have found the cell phone issue to not be a problem when conducting their random sample surveys. The Pew Research Center posted a report on this a year ago:

    http://pewresearch.org/pubs/515/polling-cell-only-problem

    The study concludes: "Thus, although cell-only respondents are different from landline respondents in important ways, they were neither numerous enough nor different enough on the questions we examined to produce a significant change in overall general population survey estimates when included with the landline samples and weighted according to U.S.
    Census parameters on basic demographic characteristics."

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    Remains of the Data

    Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

    The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

    Political Crumbs

    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    Home Field Advantage?

    When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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