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HHH/MPR Survey: Obama Up By 10 in Minnesota

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A new poll by the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute and Minnesota Public Radio was released today indicating Barack Obama still has the advantage over John McCain in the Gopher State.

The poll, conducted over an 11-day period ending August 17th of 763 likely voters, finds Obama leading McCain 48 to 38 percent, with Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr earning 3 percent and 1 percent respectively.

The HHH / MPR poll is the first released in a month to find Obama’s lead in double-digits in the Gopher State. McCain has not led Obama in any poll of Minnesotans since a mid-March poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

The poll internals suggest Obama is benefiting from a 14-point net gender gap, with female voters supporting the Illinois Senator by a 52 to 36 percent margin.

To read the full 10-page report on the presidential race in Minnesota, please visit the Humphrey Institute’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance website.

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2 Comments


  • I assume that polling only engages persons who have land- lines. That being the case, I'd also assume that younger potential voters are under-represented in your poll and in other like polls because a larger percentage of them only have cell phones. This issue isn't discussed in the report. Is it considered?

  • In general, commercial and academic pollsters have found the cell phone issue to not be a problem when conducting their random sample surveys. The Pew Research Center posted a report on this a year ago:

    http://pewresearch.org/pubs/515/polling-cell-only-problem

    The study concludes: "Thus, although cell-only respondents are different from landline respondents in important ways, they were neither numerous enough nor different enough on the questions we examined to produce a significant change in overall general population survey estimates when included with the landline samples and weighted according to U.S.
    Census parameters on basic demographic characteristics."

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

    Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

    Political Crumbs

    Evolving?

    When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


    73 Months and Counting

    January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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