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McCain’s Momentum: A State-by-State Overview of Recent Polls

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After trailing Barack Obama in virtually every national matchup poll from mid-May through late July, John McCain is now running even with Obama or has taken the lead outright, according to several recent national surveys – including a brand new Reuters / Zogby poll that gives McCain his largest advantage in more than four months
(5 points).

But how is McCain’s national momentum playing out in the most important polls – those 50 individual states that will cast electoral votes?

To gauge McCain’s momentum at the state level, Smart Politics examined 19 states in which polling had been completed within the last two weeks by a non-partisan survey organization, provided that organization had also conducted a similar poll in the state since late June. The 19 states are Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Virginia, and Washington.

Smart Politics then compared the net difference between McCain and Obama from the most recent poll (all conducted from August 7 to August 18) to the previous survey from that same polling organization (most conducted in mid-July).

The news is not good for the Obama camp.

· Of these 19 states, 13 saw a net change between the candidates of more than two points in either direction.

· Of these 13 states, 9 saw a meaningful bump up for McCain: New York (+10), Washington (+9), Indiana (+7), Iowa (+5), Nevada (+5), Florida (+4), Michigan (+4), Colorado (+4), and North Carolina (+3).

· Only 4 states indicated momentum for Obama: Kansas (+9), Maine (+6), Ohio (+5), and Illinois (+4).

The most troubling part of this snapshot for the Obama campaign is not simply that McCain appears to have momentum in more than twice as many states as Obama, but the particular states where this momentum is taking place.

Obama’s positive movement appears in three states where the outcome was virtually certain before the campaign even began: two Obama states (Illinois and Maine) and one McCain state (Kansas). Obama’s only real uptick in a battleground state came in Ohio.

McCain’s momentum, however, is seen across several battleground states: Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, Florida, Michigan, Colorado, North Carolina, and Washington. Although Obama is still leading in the most recent Iowa, Michigan, and Washington surveys, he has lost his advantage over McCain from previous polling in Indiana, Nevada, Florida, and Colorado.

There will be little opportunity for Obama to sustain a bounce from either his forthcoming VP pick or his elevated profile at the Democratic National Convention, as McCain’s VP pick and the Republican National Convention will take place shortly thereafter. Obama will likely need to acquit himself well in the upcoming autumn debates to see a return to his pre-August standing.

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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