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Obama Support Falls To Lowest Mark Against McCain in Rasmussen’s Minnesota Polling

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As recent state polls across the country indicate a tightening of the presidential race in favor of John McCain, a new Rasmussen poll of 700 likely Minnesota voters finds support for Obama at its lowest margin to date across nine polls conducted by the survey organization since February 2008. The Illinois Senator is also enduring his lowest favorability rating in the state, while McCain’s numbers are on the rise.

The Rasmussen poll, conducted August 13th, gives Obama a 46 to 42 percent lead over McCain. Obama has led McCain in all nine Rasmussen surveys released over the past seven months, but 46 percent is a low water mark for Obama – down from 53 percent in May, to 52 percent in June and early July, to 49 percent in late July. Obama’s lead over McCain has subsequently decreased from a double-digit margin in five straight polls to just 4 points in the new August poll.

McCain, meanwhile, eclipsed the 40 percent mark for just the third time in Rasmussen’s on-going matchup surveys. In other good news for McCain, his favorability rating has climbed to 60 percent – rising steadily from 52 percent in May, to 54 percent in June, to 56 percent in early July, to 57 percent in late July.

Obama, meanwhile, has seen his favorability rating drop to 56 percent – its lowest mark ever as measured by Rasmussen, falling precipitously from 65 percent in early July to 60 percent in late July.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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