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Obama Support Falls To Lowest Mark Against McCain in Rasmussen’s Minnesota Polling

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As recent state polls across the country indicate a tightening of the presidential race in favor of John McCain, a new Rasmussen poll of 700 likely Minnesota voters finds support for Obama at its lowest margin to date across nine polls conducted by the survey organization since February 2008. The Illinois Senator is also enduring his lowest favorability rating in the state, while McCain’s numbers are on the rise.

The Rasmussen poll, conducted August 13th, gives Obama a 46 to 42 percent lead over McCain. Obama has led McCain in all nine Rasmussen surveys released over the past seven months, but 46 percent is a low water mark for Obama – down from 53 percent in May, to 52 percent in June and early July, to 49 percent in late July. Obama’s lead over McCain has subsequently decreased from a double-digit margin in five straight polls to just 4 points in the new August poll.

McCain, meanwhile, eclipsed the 40 percent mark for just the third time in Rasmussen’s on-going matchup surveys. In other good news for McCain, his favorability rating has climbed to 60 percent – rising steadily from 52 percent in May, to 54 percent in June, to 56 percent in early July, to 57 percent in late July.

Obama, meanwhile, has seen his favorability rating drop to 56 percent – its lowest mark ever as measured by Rasmussen, falling precipitously from 65 percent in early July to 60 percent in late July.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

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Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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