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Obama Support Falls To Lowest Mark Against McCain in Rasmussen’s Minnesota Polling

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As recent state polls across the country indicate a tightening of the presidential race in favor of John McCain, a new Rasmussen poll of 700 likely Minnesota voters finds support for Obama at its lowest margin to date across nine polls conducted by the survey organization since February 2008. The Illinois Senator is also enduring his lowest favorability rating in the state, while McCain’s numbers are on the rise.

The Rasmussen poll, conducted August 13th, gives Obama a 46 to 42 percent lead over McCain. Obama has led McCain in all nine Rasmussen surveys released over the past seven months, but 46 percent is a low water mark for Obama – down from 53 percent in May, to 52 percent in June and early July, to 49 percent in late July. Obama’s lead over McCain has subsequently decreased from a double-digit margin in five straight polls to just 4 points in the new August poll.

McCain, meanwhile, eclipsed the 40 percent mark for just the third time in Rasmussen’s on-going matchup surveys. In other good news for McCain, his favorability rating has climbed to 60 percent – rising steadily from 52 percent in May, to 54 percent in June, to 56 percent in early July, to 57 percent in late July.

Obama, meanwhile, has seen his favorability rating drop to 56 percent – its lowest mark ever as measured by Rasmussen, falling precipitously from 65 percent in early July to 60 percent in late July.

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Political Crumbs

The 40 Percent Floor

Although Republicans have won 23 of 39 Indiana gubernatorial races since the first time a GOP candidate was on the ballot in 1860, Democrats have suffered few blow-out defeats during this span. In fact, the Democratic nominee has eclipsed the 40 percent mark in all 39 contests. The Republicans cannot quite claim the same, falling below 40 percent just once with nominee Linley Pearson during the gubernatorial election of 1992 when Evan Byah won his second term. Democrats have a streak of 47 consecutive contests reaching the 40 percent mark - doing so every cycle since the party first fielded a candidate in the race for governor of 1834.


Curse of the '4'?

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


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