Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Live Blog: Convention Politics and the Fall Elections II

Bookmark and Share

10:15 a.m. "Convention Politics and the Fall Elections" returns as the second panel this morning at the Humphrey Institute's series of forums entitled, America's Future: Conversations about Politics and Policy during the 2008 Republican National Convention. The discussion is moderated by Lawrence Jacobs (Director, Center for the Study of Poltiics and Governance, Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota). The panelists are:

* Norman Ornstein (Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute)
* Stuart Rothenberg (Editor and Publisher, The Rothenberg Political Report)
* Vin Weber (Chairman, National Endowment for Democracy and Partner, Clark and Weinstock)

10:23 a.m. The panel is talking about Sarah Palin - her selection and RNC speech. Ornstein says Tim Pawlenty was vetted quite thoroughly -- he was "given the full body cavity search" while Palin was "allowed to walk around the metal detector." Ornstein says McCain has now energized the base with the Palin selection; he needed to do this because McCain was someone originally supported by just about 12 percent of the GOP last year.

10:25 a.m. Palin's position on abortion, creationism, and sex education differ from that of McCain, Ornstein says.

10:28 a.m. Weber says people who know Palin and have worked with her says she is an impressive person to work with. That said, Weber believes if you look at her resume she is short on qualifications. Weber believe Palin can connect with an audience even with those who may not agree with her on the issues.

10:33 a.m. Rothenberg says the Republican Party will be punished 'down ballot' in the 2008 election, but the 'McCain brand' is more popular than the 'Republican brand' and therefore he is running a tight race with Obama.

10:36 a.m. Rothenberg was on the floor last night and says everyone, including moderate Republicans, were electrified by Palin.

10:45 a.m. Ornstein says the McCain campaign is going to quarantine Palin, having her give speeches and talk to local press, but not the national press (and that she will go before Sean Hannity long before she talks to Tom Brokaw).

10:51 a.m. Rothenberg says the types of groups McCain needs to draw into his camp to win the election are: the 2004 Bush coalition, the old white working class Democratic constituency (former Reagan Democrats), older voters, and military voters. Rothenberg says Palin is not going to attract Hillary voters and if he does attract some women it will be older, married women who tend to vote Republican anyway.

10:58 a.m. Ornstein says it will remain a 4 or 5 point race until the debates.

11:10 a.m. Rothenberg says there will be a 10-15 seat gain for the Democrats in this election in the U.S. House and 5-6 seats in the Senate. He says it all has to do with the Republican brand and disastisfaction with Bush.

11:15 a.m. Regarding the Minnesota U.S. Senate race, Rothenberg calls it a toss-up, with a slight edge to Coleman. Weber thinks Coleman is going to win, but not by a large margin. Both agree that Franken's high negatives will be difficult to overcome.

11:17 a.m. Weber does not see much impact by third parties in the 2008 presidential race, though if Ron Paul had launched a third party campaign, that would have been another story. Weber says "Ron Paul believes things that Republicans want to believe, but can't."

Previous post: Live Blog: Democracy and America's Role in the World
Next post: Live Blog: Tax Policy at a Crossroads

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Have the Longest and Shortest Election Day Voting Hours?

Residents in some North Dakota towns have less than half as many hours to cast their ballots as those in New York State.

Political Crumbs

No 100-Year Curse for Roberts

Defeating his Tea Party primary challenger Milton Wolf with just 48.1 percent of the vote, Pat Roberts narrowly escaped becoming the first elected U.S. Senator from Kansas to lose a renomination bid in 100 years. The last - and so far only - elected U.S. Senator to lose a Kansas primary was one-term Republican Joseph Bristow in 1914. Bristow was defeated by former U.S. Senator Charles Curtis who went on to win three terms before becoming Herbert Hoover's running mate in 1928. Only one other U.S. Senator from the Sunflower State has lost a primary since the passage of the 17th Amendment: Sheila Frahm in 1996. Frahm was appointed to fill Bob Dole's seat earlier that year and finished 13.2 points behind Sam Brownback in the three-candidate primary field. Overall, incumbent senators from Kansas have won 29 times against two defeats in the direct vote era. (Curtis also lost a primary in 1912 to Walter Stubbs, one year before the nation moved to direct elections).


The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting