Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Weekend Upper Midwestern Presidential Poll Roundup

Bookmark and Share

The nearly uniform surge enjoyed by Barack Obama in the national polls over John McCain this past week has so far only translated into a bump in the polls in the Upper Midwest in the state of Wisconsin, with his narrow advantage in Minnesota and larger advantage in Iowa remaining fairly constant.

In Wisconsin, Obama expanded the statistically insignificant 1-point lead he held in two polls two weeks ago to advantages of 5 and 6 points as measured two surveys released this past week:

· WISC-TV / Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43% (September 22-23, 600 LV)
· American Research Group: Obama 50%, McCain 45% (September 18-21, 600 LV)

Two weeks ago, in Minnesota, Obama was tied with McCain in one poll (Star Tribune) and led McCain by two points in two other polls (Big 10 Battleground, SurveyUSA). Last week, three polls were released of likely voters in the Gopher State – two of which still showed the race a dead heat, with a Rasmussen poll showing Obama opening up a lead outside the margin of error:

· Quinnipiac: Obama 47%, McCain 45% (September 14-21, 1,301 LV)
· American Research Group: Obama 48%, McCain 47% (September 18-20, 600 LV)
· Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44% (September 18, 500 LV)

Obama continues to maintain a notable lead in the state of Iowa – although not quite as large as the 14 and 11-point advantages he held in two polls from two weeks ago. Three polls released this week show the race between 7 and 10 points:

· Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 43% (September 25, 700 LV)
· Marist: Obama 51%, McCain 41% (September 18-21, 467 LV)
· American Research Group: Obama 51%, McCain 44% (September 17-20, 600 LV)

Nationally, almost all tracking polls show Obama opening up a 5 to 8 point lead over the senior Senator from Arizona – an uptick of approximately 3 or 4 points from the previous week.

Previous post: Economic Concerns Nothing New to Upper Midwesterners
Next post: Upper Midwestern House Delegation Split in Support of Financial Industry Bailout Bill

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Small Club in St. Paul

Mark Dayton is one of just three Minnesotans ever elected to three different statewide offices. Dayton, of course, had previously served as State Auditor (1991-1995) and U.S. Senator (2001-2007) before winning the governorship in 2010. At that time, he joined Republicans Edward Thye and J.A.A. Burnquist on this very short list. Burnquist was elected lieutenant governor in 1914 but then became governor after the death of Democrat Winfield Hammond in 1915. He then won the gubernatorial elections of 1916 and 1918 and eight terms as attorney general two decades later (1939-1955). Thye was similarly first elected lieutenant governor of the Gopher State and became governor after the resignation of fellow GOPer Harold Stasson in 1943. Thye won one additional full term as governor in 1944 and then two terms to the U.S. Senate (1947-1959). Twenty Minnesotans have been elected to two different statewide offices.


Respect Your Elders?

With retirement announcements this year by veteran U.S. Representatives such as 30-term Democrat John Dingell of Michigan, 20-term Democrat George Miller of California, and 18-term Republican Tom Petri of Wisconsin, it is no surprise that retirees from the 113th Congress are one of the most experienced cohorts in recent decades. Overall, these 24 exiting members of the House have served an average of 11.0 terms - the second longest tenure among retirees across the last 18 cycles since 1980. Only the U.S. Representatives retiring in 2006 had more experience, averaging 11.9 terms. (In that cycle, 10 of the 11 retiring members served at least 10 terms, with GOPer Bill Jenkins of Tennessee the lone exception at just five). Even without the aforementioned Dingell, the average length of service in the chamber of the remaining 23 retirees in 2014 is 10.2 terms - which would still be the third highest since 1980 behind the 2006 and 2012 (10.5 terms) cycles.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting