Weekend Upper Midwestern Presidential Poll Roundup

The nearly uniform surge enjoyed by Barack Obama in the national polls over John McCain this past week has so far only translated into a bump in the polls in the Upper Midwest in the state of Wisconsin, with his narrow advantage in Minnesota and larger advantage in Iowa remaining fairly constant.

In Wisconsin, Obama expanded the statistically insignificant 1-point lead he held in two polls two weeks ago to advantages of 5 and 6 points as measured two surveys released this past week:

· WISC-TV / Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43% (September 22-23, 600 LV)
· American Research Group: Obama 50%, McCain 45% (September 18-21, 600 LV)

Two weeks ago, in Minnesota, Obama was tied with McCain in one poll (Star Tribune) and led McCain by two points in two other polls (Big 10 Battleground, SurveyUSA). Last week, three polls were released of likely voters in the Gopher State – two of which still showed the race a dead heat, with a Rasmussen poll showing Obama opening up a lead outside the margin of error:

· Quinnipiac: Obama 47%, McCain 45% (September 14-21, 1,301 LV)
· American Research Group: Obama 48%, McCain 47% (September 18-20, 600 LV)
· Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44% (September 18, 500 LV)

Obama continues to maintain a notable lead in the state of Iowa – although not quite as large as the 14 and 11-point advantages he held in two polls from two weeks ago. Three polls released this week show the race between 7 and 10 points:

· Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 43% (September 25, 700 LV)
· Marist: Obama 51%, McCain 41% (September 18-21, 467 LV)
· American Research Group: Obama 51%, McCain 44% (September 17-20, 600 LV)

Nationally, almost all tracking polls show Obama opening up a 5 to 8 point lead over the senior Senator from Arizona – an uptick of approximately 3 or 4 points from the previous week.