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Weekend Upper Midwestern Presidential Poll Roundup

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The nearly uniform surge enjoyed by Barack Obama in the national polls over John McCain this past week has so far only translated into a bump in the polls in the Upper Midwest in the state of Wisconsin, with his narrow advantage in Minnesota and larger advantage in Iowa remaining fairly constant.

In Wisconsin, Obama expanded the statistically insignificant 1-point lead he held in two polls two weeks ago to advantages of 5 and 6 points as measured two surveys released this past week:

· WISC-TV / Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43% (September 22-23, 600 LV)
· American Research Group: Obama 50%, McCain 45% (September 18-21, 600 LV)

Two weeks ago, in Minnesota, Obama was tied with McCain in one poll (Star Tribune) and led McCain by two points in two other polls (Big 10 Battleground, SurveyUSA). Last week, three polls were released of likely voters in the Gopher State – two of which still showed the race a dead heat, with a Rasmussen poll showing Obama opening up a lead outside the margin of error:

· Quinnipiac: Obama 47%, McCain 45% (September 14-21, 1,301 LV)
· American Research Group: Obama 48%, McCain 47% (September 18-20, 600 LV)
· Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44% (September 18, 500 LV)

Obama continues to maintain a notable lead in the state of Iowa – although not quite as large as the 14 and 11-point advantages he held in two polls from two weeks ago. Three polls released this week show the race between 7 and 10 points:

· Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 43% (September 25, 700 LV)
· Marist: Obama 51%, McCain 41% (September 18-21, 467 LV)
· American Research Group: Obama 51%, McCain 44% (September 17-20, 600 LV)

Nationally, almost all tracking polls show Obama opening up a 5 to 8 point lead over the senior Senator from Arizona – an uptick of approximately 3 or 4 points from the previous week.

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Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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