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Why Don’t Democrats Nominate Westerners?

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The “Sarah Palin effect" has been felt, at least for the moment, across national and state polls. John McCain’s numbers are looking particularly strong in Western states, the region from which he and Palin hail.

For example, in polls conduct in the past week, McCain is up:

· 25 points in Alaska, compared to late July (Rasmussen)
· 13 points in North Dakota, compared to late July (Rasmussen)
· 11 points in Montana, compared to late July (Rasmussen)
· 10 points in Washington compared to a month ago (Rasmussen)
· 6 points in New Mexico, compared to mid-August (Rasmussen)

Obama appears to be holding steady in Colorado, home to the Democratic National Convention a few weeks ago.

But the selection of a Western politician for the VP slot is nothing new to the GOP – Palin joins a list that includes former Wyoming Congressman Dick Cheney (2000 & 2004), former California Senator Richard Nixon (1952 & 1956), California Governor Earl Warren (1948), and Oregon Senator Charles L. McNary (1940).

Democrats, on the other hand, have only nominated a Westerner one time for either the presidential or vice-presidential slot – and you have to go back nearly 150 years to find him: U.S. Senator Joseph Lane from Oregon was nominated as VP to join John C. Breckinridge’s Southern (pro-slavery) Democratic ticket in 1860.

Aside from Lane, the furthest West the Democratic Party has ventured to select its Vice Presidential nominee is the state of Texas: Lloyd Bentsen (1988), Lyndon B. Johnson (1960), and John Nance Garner (1932 & 1936).

The closest Democrats have come to a Western presidential nominee are Plains state politicians George McGovern (South Dakota, 1972) and William Jennings Bryan (Nebraska, 1896 & 1900).

Aside from McCain, Republicans can list several Western presidential nominees to their credit: former California Governor Ronald Reagan (1980 & 1984), Nixon (1960, 1968, 1972), Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater (1964), and former California Senator John C. Frémont (1856).

For a party that endeavors to take advantage of the ‘changing demographics of the West’ (i.e. more minorities), Democrats have once again failed to steal home field advantage from the Republicans by not reaching out to Westerners and nominating one of their own (Plains State Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas would at least have been a step in the right direction).

Instead, the Democratic Party will remain, at least for the next four years, as a political party largely identified with the Northeast.

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Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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