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Democratic-Led Iowa U.S. House Delegation a Rarity

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Iowa Democrats are poised to return to the U.S. House as the majority delegation in back-to-back elections for just the fourth time in the history of the Hawkeye State.

If reelected, the state’s Democratic U.S. Representatives (Bruce Braley from the 1st District, David Loebsack from the 2nd District, and Leonard Boswell from the 3rd District) will be in the majority for just the 11th time in 82 general elections since Iowa achieved statehood in 1846.

Democrats have only held a majority in the state delegation in back-to-back election years in three eras: 1847-1850 (before the founding of the Republican Party), 1932-1936 (after the stock market crash and the ensuing Great Depression), and 1974-1976 (after the Watergate fallout).

The only other years in which more Democrats than Republicans were elected to the U.S. House in Iowa are 1964 and 2006 (both years in which Democratic landslides occurred across the country).

History therefore tells us the fact that Iowa’s three Democrats will likely return as the majority delegation to the U.S. House in 2008 suggests another Democratic landslide nationwide is in the works this November.

Overall, 523 Republicans have been elected to the U.S. House in general and special elections, compared to just 115 Democrats, and 4 representing third parties. That represents an 81.5 percent to 17.9 percent historical advantage.

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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