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Election Profile: Iowa's 4th Congressional District (2008)

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Smart Politics is running a series of election profiles of all the Upper Midwestern U.S. Senate and U.S. House races leading up to the November 4th elections. The series will culminate with Smart Politics' official projections. The sixth profile in the series is Iowa's 4th Congressional District race.

Candidates:
Republican: Tom Latham (7-term incumbent)
Democrat: Becky Greenwald
Write-in: William J. Meyers

District Geography:
Iowa's 4th Congressional District comprises twenty-eight counties in the central and northern part of the state: Alamakee, Boone, Calhoun, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Dallas, Emmet, Floyd, Franklin, Greene, Hamilton, Hancock, Hardin, Howard, Humboldt, Kossuth, Madison, Marshall, Mitchell, Palo Alto, Pocahontas, Story, Warren, Webster, Winnebago, Winneshiek, Worth, and Wright.

History:
Latham was part of the 1994 "Republican revolution that swept into Congress with a large number of first-time GOP victors. Latham beat Democrat nominee Sheila McGuire by 21.8 points in what was then the 5th Congressional District seat left open by 4-term Republican Fred Grandy (former actor on The Love Boat). For the next three elections Latham faced little competition: winning by 31.9 points in 1996, running unopposed in 1998, and winning by 39.6 points in 2000. In 2002, Latham faced his stiffest competition, defeating Democratic nominee John Norris by 11.7 points. In 2004 Latham cruised to a 21.9-point victory over Democratic nominee Paul W. Johnson. In 2006 Lathan faced the second closest race of his Congressional career - winning by 14.4 points over Selden Spencer.

Lathan serves on the House Appropriations Committee - the only member from Iowa's delegation on that powerful committee.

Becky Greenwald, who works in sales and marketing for a DuPont company called Pioneer Hi-Bred, has been an active member of the Iowa Democratic Party in recent years, serving as County Chair and representing the 4th District on the Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee.

William J. Meyers will not appear on the ballot, but has launched a write-in campaign.

Outlook:
This region of the Hawkeye State has voted Republican for U.S. House contests in each race for the last two decades. If either of the GOP's two Congressional Districts in the state were to flip in 2008 (the 5th District being the other), it would be the 4th, but it would take an extraordinary landslide Democratic election to make that so, in light of Latham's six consecutive double-digit victories.

Previous post: Election Profile: Iowa's 3rd Congressional District (2008)
Next post: Dean Barkley Hits 19 Percent in New Minnesota Senate Poll

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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