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Election Profile: Minnesota's 8th Congressional District (2008)

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Smart Politics is running a series of election profiles of all the Upper Midwestern U.S. Senate and U.S. House races leading up to the November 4th elections. The series will culminate with Smart Politics' official projections. The twenty-fourth profile in the series is Minnesota's 8th Congressional District race.

Candidates:
DFL: James L. Oberstar (17-term incumbent)
Republican: Michael Cummins

District Geography:
Minnesota's 8th Congressional District comprises the northeastern Iron Range counties: Aitkin, Carlton, Cass, Chisago, Cook, Crow Wing, Hubbard, Isanti, Itasca, Kanabec, Koochiching, Lake, Mille Lacs, Morrison, Pine, St. Louis, Wadena, and the southeastern part of Beltrami County.

History:
Oberstar was first elected to Congress in 1974 when he filled the open seat left by 14-term DFL Representative John A. Blatnik in Minnesota's 8th District. Oberstar beat his Republican opponent in that election, Jerome Arnold, by 35.8 points. Oberstar has now outlasted his predecessor, and is the longest serving Congressman in Gopher State history. Oberstar has won 16 straight re-election campaigns, by an average victory margin of 45.6 points. The GOP has failed to field a candidate against Obserstar in two elections (1976 and 1978), and the closest a Republican candidate has come to beating Oberstar is 29.4 points - both in 1992 (Independent-Republican Phil Herwig) and 2006 (former GOP U.S. Senator Rod Grams).

James Oberstar serves as Chairman of the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure. Oberstar voted against the War in Iraq and is committed to bringing home U.S. troops "safely but soon. He is also advocating fiscal responsibility to combat the federal deficit, delivering increased benefits to veterans, and increasing the federal minimum wage.

Republican Michael Cummins, a project manager at Seal Guard Systems, is running a campaign that is "pro-life, pro-land rights, pro-2nd Amendment, pro-drilling.

Outlook:
The 8th Congressional District has been one of the most reliably Democratic in recent high-profile elections. In 2006, DFL-er Amy Klobuchar won her Senate seat in by 24.0 points and DFL nominee Mike Hatch carried the district by 11.1 points over Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty. John Kerry carried the 8th District by 6.5 points in 2004 and Al Gore won by 5.4 points in the district in 2000. The DFL has held this U.S. House seat since 1946, and the 34-year serving Oberstar will easily return to Washington D.C. for two more years to his prestigious Chairmanship on the Transportation Committee.

Previous post: Election Profile: Minnesota's 7th Congressional District (2008)
Next post: Election Profile: Minnesota U.S. Senate

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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