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Election Profile: Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District (2008)

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Smart Politics is running a series of election profiles of all the Upper Midwestern U.S. Senate and U.S. House races leading up to the November 4th elections. The series will culminate with Smart Politics' official projections. The twelfth profile in the series is Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District race.

Candidates:
Democrat: Gwendolynne Moore (2-term incumbent)
Independent: Michael D. LaForest

District Geography:
Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District comprises the bulk of Milwaukee County including the cities of Cudahay, Milwaukee, St. Francis, South Milwaukee, West Allis, and West Milwaukee.

History:
In 2004 Moore won her inaugural U.S. House race by 41.4 points to fill the seat vacated by 11-term Democratic congressman Gerald Kleczka. In 2006, Moore won by 42.9 points in this urban, Democratic stronghold. Milwaukee's 4th District has voted for the Democratic Party in every U.S. House election since 1948, with an average margin of victory of approximately 50 points since 1960. Republicans have carried the district just two times since 1932 (1938 and 1946).

Republicans have failed to even field a candidate in more than one-third of the U.S. races in the 4th District since 1976 (6 of 17), including 2008. The only other name on the ballot this year is Independent candidate Michael D. LaForest.

Outlook:
Some congressional districts are so tilted red or blue that it is no wonder opposition parties face difficulties even in fielding a candidate - like the GOP in the 4th District. A Republican candidate has come within single-digits of beating a Democrat in the 4th District just one time since 1948 (Tom Reynolds, losing by 8.9 points during the Republican Revolution of 1994). The strongest showing by an independent or third party candidate during that span is 13.0 percent (by the Green Party in 2002; no Republicans were on the ballot in that contest).

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5 Comments


  • I am writing to inform you that there is, in fact, a Republican running for Congress in Wisconsin's 4th district this coming general election. Unfortunately he entered the race too late for him to get on the ballot officially. His name is Dan Sebring and he is a regular citizen who is sick and tired of Gwen Moore pretending to work for Milwaukee and is instead lining her own pockets with taxpayers money. His website can be found at dansebringforcongress.com

    Although Dan is only a write in for this coming election, he plans to run again in 2010 as an official candidate against Gwen Moore. She has a more than shady past (going back long before her son was convicted of slashing tires on Republican funded "get out and vote" vans), and local constituents have been bribed with things like Whopper coupons to go out and vote for her.

    Those of us who live and work in Milwaukee have had enough of her kind of "politics".

  • My vote did not count the first time, the super delegated determined it. California, Washington, Oregons vote didn't count because the win came before in electorial college, so why did they vote. I won't vote again until there is a fair vote in this undemocratic country. Sandra fleischman.

  • I am writing to inform you all that myself a member of the independent american party is also running for congress in 2010 as well. I believe it is time to make a difference in our country and state. Change must come to make things better. Milwaukee and the several surrounding areas need a leader not a politician. It is time to make a change..."let's make it better 2010". Goodluck to all the runners...the best we can do is run then we have done all that we can.

    www.usiap.org

  • Check out this new press release posted yesterday about Dan Sebring

  • To whom it may concern: Looking for a job soon, like around November 4th 2010, with double digit unemployment it may be hard. The Anointed one has led many in his flock to a political abyss. He truly is an egomaniac, and has you for us to take it out on. We will stop our renegade employees one way, or the other. The U.S. Conservative Christians have sixteen Democrats in their sites, the 9/12ers, God knows how many we’ll take down, the NRA, FAIR, and the list goes on. The bishops, with, oh, twenty percent of the Christian population angry over this “choice” matter, people, things are not looking too good. You can go down, or scrap the whole idea. Co-op’s require funding to start, they could be made to fail, and the “Government Option” would rise. “WE THE PEOPLE”, who should concern you, we all were born on a yesterday, but not the day before this one. You underestimate us; we are not the Astroturf that you think. We will not to be broken down, melted, then turned into child proof objects, which I’m sure would be required for your safety. To bad you won’t have nothing to manipulate, then disregard during the interim. You may succeed; if not by sixty, reconciliation could be a bad option. We have no voice in your administration. Thou are numbers overwhelm that of yours, it seems of no consequence. You follow the path to ruin, not only your chosen destruction, but that of an entire nation. We will not follow in your footsteps, we can turn to contempt and disregard, weather the consequences, and wait for real “CHANGE” that is Constitutional, and moral.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

    The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

    Political Crumbs

    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    Home Field Advantage?

    When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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