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Election Profile: Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District (2008)

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Smart Politics is running a series of election profiles of all the Upper Midwestern U.S. Senate and U.S. House races leading up to the November 4th elections. The series will culminate with Smart Politics' official projections. The twelfth profile in the series is Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District race.

Candidates:
Democrat: Gwendolynne Moore (2-term incumbent)
Independent: Michael D. LaForest

District Geography:
Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District comprises the bulk of Milwaukee County including the cities of Cudahay, Milwaukee, St. Francis, South Milwaukee, West Allis, and West Milwaukee.

History:
In 2004 Moore won her inaugural U.S. House race by 41.4 points to fill the seat vacated by 11-term Democratic congressman Gerald Kleczka. In 2006, Moore won by 42.9 points in this urban, Democratic stronghold. Milwaukee's 4th District has voted for the Democratic Party in every U.S. House election since 1948, with an average margin of victory of approximately 50 points since 1960. Republicans have carried the district just two times since 1932 (1938 and 1946).

Republicans have failed to even field a candidate in more than one-third of the U.S. races in the 4th District since 1976 (6 of 17), including 2008. The only other name on the ballot this year is Independent candidate Michael D. LaForest.

Outlook:
Some congressional districts are so tilted red or blue that it is no wonder opposition parties face difficulties even in fielding a candidate - like the GOP in the 4th District. A Republican candidate has come within single-digits of beating a Democrat in the 4th District just one time since 1948 (Tom Reynolds, losing by 8.9 points during the Republican Revolution of 1994). The strongest showing by an independent or third party candidate during that span is 13.0 percent (by the Green Party in 2002; no Republicans were on the ballot in that contest).

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5 Comments


  • I am writing to inform you that there is, in fact, a Republican running for Congress in Wisconsin's 4th district this coming general election. Unfortunately he entered the race too late for him to get on the ballot officially. His name is Dan Sebring and he is a regular citizen who is sick and tired of Gwen Moore pretending to work for Milwaukee and is instead lining her own pockets with taxpayers money. His website can be found at dansebringforcongress.com

    Although Dan is only a write in for this coming election, he plans to run again in 2010 as an official candidate against Gwen Moore. She has a more than shady past (going back long before her son was convicted of slashing tires on Republican funded "get out and vote" vans), and local constituents have been bribed with things like Whopper coupons to go out and vote for her.

    Those of us who live and work in Milwaukee have had enough of her kind of "politics".

  • My vote did not count the first time, the super delegated determined it. California, Washington, Oregons vote didn't count because the win came before in electorial college, so why did they vote. I won't vote again until there is a fair vote in this undemocratic country. Sandra fleischman.

  • I am writing to inform you all that myself a member of the independent american party is also running for congress in 2010 as well. I believe it is time to make a difference in our country and state. Change must come to make things better. Milwaukee and the several surrounding areas need a leader not a politician. It is time to make a change..."let's make it better 2010". Goodluck to all the runners...the best we can do is run then we have done all that we can.

    www.usiap.org

  • Check out this new press release posted yesterday about Dan Sebring

  • To whom it may concern: Looking for a job soon, like around November 4th 2010, with double digit unemployment it may be hard. The Anointed one has led many in his flock to a political abyss. He truly is an egomaniac, and has you for us to take it out on. We will stop our renegade employees one way, or the other. The U.S. Conservative Christians have sixteen Democrats in their sites, the 9/12ers, God knows how many we’ll take down, the NRA, FAIR, and the list goes on. The bishops, with, oh, twenty percent of the Christian population angry over this “choice” matter, people, things are not looking too good. You can go down, or scrap the whole idea. Co-op’s require funding to start, they could be made to fail, and the “Government Option” would rise. “WE THE PEOPLE”, who should concern you, we all were born on a yesterday, but not the day before this one. You underestimate us; we are not the Astroturf that you think. We will not to be broken down, melted, then turned into child proof objects, which I’m sure would be required for your safety. To bad you won’t have nothing to manipulate, then disregard during the interim. You may succeed; if not by sixty, reconciliation could be a bad option. We have no voice in your administration. Thou are numbers overwhelm that of yours, it seems of no consequence. You follow the path to ruin, not only your chosen destruction, but that of an entire nation. We will not follow in your footsteps, we can turn to contempt and disregard, weather the consequences, and wait for real “CHANGE” that is Constitutional, and moral.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

    Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

    Political Crumbs

    Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

    Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


    An Idaho Six Pack

    Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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