HHH / MPR News Poll – Obama Propelled by Financial Crisis and VP Debate

From the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance press release:

“According to two Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute polls of likely Minnesota voters, the extraordinary financial crisis and the resulting congressional response along with the Vice Presidential debate propelled the Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama from a narrow 4 point lead (47 percent to 43 percent) to a 14 point advantage over Senator John McCain (54 percent to 40 percent).

Despite Obama’s lead, the race remains fluid. Twelve percent of likely voters indicate that they may change their minds; among the larger group of 19 percent who are up for grabs, there appears to be receptivity to McCain.

The surveys were conducted of 346 likely voters between September 29, 2008 and October 1, 2008, and 418 likely voters between October 3rd and October 5th. The margin of error is +/-5.3 percentage points and 4.8 points, respectively. For smaller subgroups the margin of sampling error is larger.�?

The full report can be found here.

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Curse of the '4'?

May 22, 2013

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.

Seasoned Senators in Wisconsin

May 2, 2013

Of the 15 men and women that have served in the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin since popular vote elections were introduced a century ago, Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin rank among the oldest upon first entering the chamber. Johnson began his tenure at the age of 55 years, 8 months, and 26 days in January 2011, which is the oldest of any elected Wisconsin Senator during this popular vote era. The next oldest, Alexander Wiley, was more than one year younger when he took his seat in 1939 (54 years, 7 months, 8 days). Tammy Baldwin comes in at #6 being 50 years, 10 months, and 23 days when she took office in January of this year. The youngest elected Senator from the Badger State was Robert La Follette, Jr. at 30 years, 7 months, and 24 days (1925) when he took the seat of his legendary deceased father.